Wales Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Caernarfon Town
vs
The New Saints
2 – 3 Full time
| 15′ | B. Wilson | ||
| 21′ | R. Hughes | ||
| 23′ | J. Canavan | ||
| 42′ | O. Evans | ||
| 55′ | A. Cieslewicz | ||
| 59′ | R. Sears | ||
| 74′ | J. CanavanP. Mendes | ||
| 74′ | B. WilsonB. Young | ||
| 74′ | I. JefferiesJ. Williams | ||
| 74′ | D. RedmondZ. Nolan | ||
| 76′ | D. Davies | ||
| 88′ | R. SearsP. Mooney | ||
| 88′ | M. JonesC. Marriott | ||
| 88′ | S. BradleyS. Nyamwanza | ||
| 88′ | O. EvansO. Zanzala | ||
| 89′ | J. LockR. Holden | ||
| 90′ | D. Simeu | ||
| 90′ | J. Piggott |
Caernarfon Town
15%
Draw
21%
The New Saints
63%
Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints
| Probability | Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.6% | 20.9% | 63.5% |
| Market | 15.3% | 21.2% | 63.5% |
| Final | 15.4% | 21.1% | 63.5% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.3% | -0.0% |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
85%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints expected goals
Caernarfon Town
1.03
The New Saints
2.24
Total expected goals: 3.27
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints attack and defence ratings
Caernarfon Town
Attack
1.22 +22%
Defence
1.22 +22%
The New Saints
Attack
1.28 +28%
Defence
0.55 -45%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints: result vs prediction
Caernarfon Town 2 – 3 The New Saints
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 63.5% | 1.57 | -0.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 15.4% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| The New Saints | 63.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 41.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints stats
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints recent form
| Caernarfon Town |
WWWLWL |
| The New Saints |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints going into this match
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
The New Saints record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Caernarfon Town wins
0Draws
9The New Saints wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Caernarfon Town | The New Saints | Wales Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2026-02-20 | The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-04 | The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | League Cup | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Caernarfon Town | The New Saints | Wales Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-11 | The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-11 | Caernarfon Town | The New Saints | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Caernarfon Town | The New Saints | Premier League | 2-5 |
| 2024-10-09 | The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-05 | The New Saints | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 7-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Caernarfon Town vs The New Saints odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.3%, draw 21.2%, away 63.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.40 |
| 1xBet | 6.65 | 4.25 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 5.90 | 4.40 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.40 | 1.40 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.50 | 1.48 |
| Marathonbet | 6.40 | 4.25 | 1.39 |
| Pinnacle | 5.94 | 4.46 | 1.46 |
| SBO | 5.32 | 3.93 | 1.42 |
| Superbet | 5.40 | 4.35 | 1.47 |
| Unibet | 5.20 | 4.10 | 1.46 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
5.90 ▲ +0.40
X
4.25 ▲ +0.15
2
1.42 ▼ -0.08
2 snapshots recorded, from .