Holywell
vs
Caernarfon Town
3 – 5 Full time
Holywell vs Caernarfon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holywell vs Caernarfon Town
| Probability | Holywell | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.4% | 20.8% | 56.9% |
| Market | 11.7% | 17.4% | 70.9% |
| Final | 14.4% | 18.2% | 67.4% |
| Edge | +10.6% | +3.4% | -14.1% |
Why Caernarfon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.47.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holywell and Caernarfon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.84
Holywell and Caernarfon Town attack and defence ratings
Holywell
Caernarfon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Holywell vs Caernarfon Town: result vs prediction
Holywell 3 – 5 Caernarfon Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
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- The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay — team news & stats
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Cambrian & Clydach
- Barry Town v Airbus UK — match page
- Llandudno vs Haverfordwest County AFC — team news & stats
- Penybont vs Flint Town United
- Trefelin vs Ammanford AFC — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Holywell vs Caernarfon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 67.4% | 1.48 | -14.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.6% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 14.4% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Caernarfon Town | 67.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.6% |
| No | 29.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 36.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-3 | 7.0% |
Holywell vs Caernarfon Town stats
Holywell and Caernarfon Town recent form
| Holywell |
LLLL |
| Caernarfon Town |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Holywell and Caernarfon Town going into this match
Holywell record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Holywell vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | Caernarfon Town | Holywell | League Cup | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Holywell vs Caernarfon Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 11.7%, draw 17.4%, away 70.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 7.75 | 5.25 | 1.28 |
| 1xBet | 8.20 | 5.25 | 1.27 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.27 |
| Betano | 7.20 | 5.20 | 1.30 |
| Betfair | 9.00 | 5.50 | 1.22 |
| Dafabet | 7.80 | 5.80 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 7.90 | 5.25 | 1.26 |
| Pinnacle | 7.71 | 5.70 | 1.30 |
| Superbet | 7.10 | 5.50 | 1.29 |
| William Hill | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .