The New Saints
vs
Colwyn Bay
5 – 1 Full time
The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay
| Probability | The New Saints | Draw | Colwyn Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.3% | 31.0% | 15.7% |
| Market | 72.3% | 18.4% | 9.4% |
| Final | 67.5% | 21.5% | 10.9% |
| Edge | -19.0% | +12.6% | +6.4% |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
The New Saints and Colwyn Bay expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
The New Saints and Colwyn Bay attack and defence ratings
The New Saints
Colwyn Bay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay: result vs prediction
The New Saints 5 – 1 Colwyn Bay
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 67.5% | 1.48 | -19.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.1% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 67.5% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Colwyn Bay | 10.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.4% |
| No | 65.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.1% |
| 0-0 | 15.7% | |
| 2-0 | 12.8% |
The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay stats
The New Saints and Colwyn Bay recent form
| The New Saints |
WWWDWL |
| Colwyn Bay |
WLDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
The New Saints and Colwyn Bay going into this match
The New Saints record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Colwyn Bay record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | The New Saints | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Colwyn Bay | The New Saints | Wales Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-13 | The New Saints | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Colwyn Bay | The New Saints | Wales Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-15 | The New Saints | Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-31 | The New Saints | Colwyn Bay | Premier League | 6-1 |
| 2023-08-29 | Colwyn Bay | The New Saints | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2022-03-20 | The New Saints | Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
The New Saints vs Colwyn Bay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.3%, draw 18.4%, away 9.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.75 |
| 1xBet | 1.25 | 4.95 | 10.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 4.75 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 4.85 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 5.00 | 10.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.27 | 5.40 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 4.95 | 9.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.17 | 9.34 |
| Superbet | 1.26 | 5.30 | 8.70 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.75 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .