Penybont
vs
Flint Town United
1 – 1 Full time
Penybont vs Flint Town United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penybont vs Flint Town United
| Probability | Penybont | Draw | Flint Town United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 31.8% | 25.3% |
| Market | 55.4% | 24.3% | 20.4% |
| Final | 52.3% | 26.2% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -12.5% | +7.6% | +4.9% |
Why Penybont
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penybont and Flint Town United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Penybont and Flint Town United attack and defence ratings
Penybont
Flint Town United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penybont vs Flint Town United: result vs prediction
Penybont 1 – 1 Flint Town United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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- Trefelin vs Ammanford AFC — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Penybont vs Flint Town United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 52.3% | 1.91 | -12.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penybont | 52.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Flint Town United | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penybont win | 19.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 13.3% |
Penybont vs Flint Town United stats
Penybont and Flint Town United recent form
| Penybont |
WWWDLL |
| Flint Town United |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penybont and Flint Town United going into this match
Penybont record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Flint Town United record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penybont vs Flint Town United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Penybont | Flint Town United | Welsh Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Flint Town United | Penybont | Wales Premier League | 3-4 |
| 2025-09-13 | Penybont | Flint Town United | Wales Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Penybont | Flint Town United | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-28 | Flint Town United | Penybont | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-01 | Flint Town United | Penybont | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-27 | Penybont | Flint Town United | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2022-05-07 | Flint Town United | Penybont | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-18 | Penybont | Flint Town United | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2022-03-26 | Flint Town United | Penybont | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penybont vs Flint Town United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 24.3%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.64 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.75 | 4.57 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.65 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.86 | 4.57 |
| Superbet | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .