Cardiff MET
vs
Trefelin
1 – 3 Full time
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff MET vs Trefelin
| Probability | Cardiff MET | Draw | Trefelin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.8% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Market | 67.6% | 19.3% | 13.1% |
| Final | 70.4% | 18.3% | 11.3% |
| Edge | +11.2% | -3.9% | -7.3% |
Why Cardiff MET
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 0.57.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cardiff MET below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff MET and Trefelin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Cardiff MET and Trefelin attack and defence ratings
Cardiff MET
Trefelin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin: result vs prediction
Cardiff MET 1 – 3 Trefelin
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 70.4% | 1.42 | +11.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff MET win | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff MET | 70.4% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| Trefelin | 11.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.4% |
| No | 59.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff MET win | 57.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 21.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.6% |
| 3-0 | 12.1% | |
| 1-0 | 11.0% |
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin stats
Cardiff MET and Trefelin recent form
| Cardiff MET |
WWDLDD |
| Trefelin |
LLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff MET and Trefelin going into this match
Cardiff MET record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Trefelin record
- They have won 0 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Cardiff MET vs Trefelin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.6%, draw 19.3%, away 13.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 4.75 | 7.55 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.37 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 5.13 | 6.93 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.46 | 6.28 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .