Holywell
vs
The New Saints
1 – 6 Full time
Holywell vs The New Saints overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Holywell vs The New Saints
| Probability | Holywell | Draw | The New Saints |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 1.4% | 4.5% | 94.0% |
| Market | 2.3% | 6.3% | 91.4% |
| Final | 2.1% | 5.8% | 92.1% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -1.7% | +2.6% |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.37 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices The New Saints below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Holywell and The New Saints expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.98
Holywell and The New Saints attack and defence ratings
Holywell
The New Saints
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Holywell vs The New Saints: result vs prediction
Holywell 1 – 6 The New Saints
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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Before and after this match
Holywell vs The New Saints markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 92.1% | 1.09 | +2.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 97.9% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holywell | 2.1% |
| Draw | 5.8% | |
| The New Saints | 92.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 12.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 7.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 94.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 97.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 85.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9.1% | |
| Loss | 6.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-4 | 10.5% |
| 0-3 | 9.6% | |
| 0-5 | 9.2% |
Holywell vs The New Saints stats
Holywell and The New Saints recent form
| Holywell |
LDLLLD |
| The New Saints |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Holywell and The New Saints going into this match
Holywell record
- They have won 0 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
The New Saints record
- They have won 11 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.6 goals per game at home against 2.6 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Holywell vs The New Saints head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Holywell vs The New Saints odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 2.3%, draw 6.3%, away 91.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 75.00 | 13.00 | 1.01 |
| Bet365 | 41.00 | 17.00 | 1.03 |
| BetVictor | 15.00 | 6.50 | 1.03 |
| Betano | 32.00 | 10.00 | 1.03 |
| Betfair | 41.00 | 15.00 | 1.03 |
| Dafabet | 45.00 | 15.00 | 1.02 |
| William Hill | 51.00 | 19.00 | 1.03 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .