Wales Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 13
Haverfordwest County AFC
vs
Caernarfon Town
1 – 2 Full time
Haverfordwest County AFC
19%
Draw
24%
Caernarfon Town
57%
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town
| Probability | Haverfordwest County AFC | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.5% | 23.4% | 60.1% |
| Market | 19.6% | 23.9% | 56.6% |
| Final | 18.8% | 23.7% | 57.4% |
| Edge | -3.0% | -0.5% | +3.5% |
Why Caernarfon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Caernarfon Town below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Haverfordwest County AFC and Caernarfon Town expected goals
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.95
Caernarfon Town
1.96
Total expected goals: 2.91
Haverfordwest County AFC and Caernarfon Town attack and defence ratings
Haverfordwest County AFC
Attack
0.63 -37%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Caernarfon Town
Attack
1.62 +62%
Defence
0.95 -5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town: result vs prediction
Haverfordwest County AFC 1 – 2 Caernarfon Town
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 57.4% | 1.74 | +3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.9% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 18.8% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Caernarfon Town | 57.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 39.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 0-2 | 10.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town stats
Haverfordwest County AFC and Caernarfon Town recent form
| Haverfordwest County AFC |
LLLWWD |
| Caernarfon Town |
LDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Haverfordwest County AFC and Caernarfon Town going into this match
Haverfordwest County AFC record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Haverfordwest County AFC wins
7Draws
0Caernarfon Town wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Caernarfon Town | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-18 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-08 | Caernarfon Town | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-26 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-17 | Caernarfon Town | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-16 | Caernarfon Town | Haverfordwest County AFC | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-08-26 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-25 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.6%, draw 23.9%, away 56.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.74 | 3.76 | 1.59 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
| BetVictor | 4.10 | 3.30 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 3.85 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.65 | 3.76 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 4.52 | 3.87 | 1.67 |
| SBO | 4.61 | 3.64 | 1.53 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.61 ▲ +0.11
X
3.78 ▼ -0.12
2
1.60 ▲ +0.01
8 snapshots recorded, from .