Barry Town
vs
Haverfordwest County AFC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barry Town
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.00.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Barry Town is the favourite, not a value bet.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC
| Probability | Barry Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County AFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 26.2% | 20.8% |
| Market | 46.6% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| Final | 48.2% | 26.8% | 25.0% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -0.2% | -1.4% |
Why Barry Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.00.
Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.2% per unit staked (our 48.2% × 2.03 − 1).
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC match preview
Barry Town faces Haverfordwest County AFC in the upcoming Wales Premier League match with a probability of 53% for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 21% for an away victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 10% probability. Barry Town's expected goals stand at 1.71, while Haverfordwest County AFC has an expected goals figure of 1.00.
In terms of recent form, Barry Town has recorded a mixed set of results with one win, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. Haverfordwest County AFC has struggled, with four losses followed by one win in their recent outings. The head-to-head record favors Barry Town, who have won two of the last three encounters, with one match ending in a draw. Both teams have a 53% chance of scoring in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC attack and defence ratings
Barry Town
Haverfordwest County AFC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barry Town | 48.2% | 2.07 | +1.6% | 2.03 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barry Town | 48.2% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Haverfordwest County AFC | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% |
| No | 47.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barry Town win | 29.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC stats
Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC recent form
| Barry Town |
LWLLDW |
| Haverfordwest County AFC |
LLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barry Town and Haverfordwest County AFC season so far
Barry Town record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Haverfordwest County AFC record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 12 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Barry Town | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Barry Town | Haverfordwest County AFC | Wales Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Haverfordwest County AFC | Barry Town | Wales Premier League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barry Town vs Haverfordwest County AFC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.6%, draw 27.0%, away 26.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.34 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.34 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.43 | 3.67 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .