Trefelin
vs
Flint Town United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Flint Town United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Flint Town United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Trefelin vs Flint Town United
| Probability | Trefelin | Draw | Flint Town United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.1% | 29.1% | 39.7% |
| Market | 28.6% | 26.0% | 45.5% |
| Final | 29.2% | 26.8% | 44.0% |
| Edge | +0.6% | +0.8% | -1.4% |
Why Flint Town United
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.05 − 1).
Trefelin vs Flint Town United match preview
Trefelin faces Flint Town United in the Wales Premier League with a forecasted probability of 31% for a Trefelin win, 29% for a draw, and 40% for a Flint Town United victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Trefelin stand at 1.18, while Flint Town United is projected at 1.36, indicating a slight edge for the visitors.
In terms of recent form, Trefelin has recorded a sequence of W-L-L-D-L-L, while Flint Town United shows L-W-W-L-L-D. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 47%, and both teams scoring is projected at 53%. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Trefelin and Flint Town United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Trefelin and Flint Town United attack and defence ratings
Trefelin
Flint Town United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Trefelin vs Flint Town United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flint Town United | 44.0% | 2.27 | -1.4% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Trefelin | 29.2% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Flint Town United | 44.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% |
| No | 47.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Flint Town United win | 19.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.1% |
Trefelin vs Flint Town United stats
Trefelin and Flint Town United recent form
| Trefelin |
WLLDLL |
| Flint Town United |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Trefelin and Flint Town United season so far
Trefelin record
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.9 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
Flint Town United record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
Trefelin vs Flint Town United head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Trefelin vs Flint Town United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.6%, draw 26.0%, away 45.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.17 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.65 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.50 | 1.96 |
| Pinnacle | 3.37 | 3.65 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .