Caernarfon Town
vs
Briton Ferry
Garuda Lions Prediction: Caernarfon Town
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Caernarfon Town is the favourite, not a value bet.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry
| Probability | Caernarfon Town | Draw | Briton Ferry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.1% | 17.2% | 11.7% |
| Market | 69.4% | 18.3% | 12.2% |
| Final | 69.8% | 18.1% | 12.1% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
Why Caernarfon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.65 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (our 69.8% × 1.33 − 1).
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry match preview
Caernarfon Town enters the match against Briton Ferry with a strong probability of winning at 71%. Their recent form shows a sequence of results with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. The expected goals for Caernarfon Town stand at 2.65, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Briton Ferry's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.03.
In their recent encounters, Caernarfon Town has dominated, winning both of the last two head-to-head matches against Briton Ferry. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1, with a 61% chance of both teams scoring and a high expectation of over 2.5 goals at 71%. Briton Ferry's recent form has been less favorable, with only one win in their last six matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.68
Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry attack and defence ratings
Caernarfon Town
Briton Ferry
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 69.8% | 1.43 | +0.4% | 1.33 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 69.8% |
| Draw | 18.1% | |
| Briton Ferry | 12.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 50.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 28.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | |
| 3-1 | 8.1% |
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry stats
Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry recent form
| Caernarfon Town |
WLDWDW |
| Briton Ferry |
LWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Caernarfon Town and Briton Ferry season so far
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Briton Ferry record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | Caernarfon Town | Briton Ferry | Wales Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Briton Ferry | Caernarfon Town | Wales Premier League | 2-5 |
| 2024-11-09 | Briton Ferry | Caernarfon Town | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Caernarfon Town | Briton Ferry | Premier League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.4%, draw 18.3%, away 12.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.29 | 4.95 | 7.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.33 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.33 | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 4.95 | 7.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.32 | 7.41 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .