Airbus UK
vs
Caernarfon Town
Garuda Lions Prediction: Caernarfon Town
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town
| Probability | Airbus UK | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 21.4% | 46.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.5% | 21.4% | 46.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Caernarfon Town
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.89.
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town match preview
Airbus UK faces Caernarfon Town in an upcoming Wales Premier League match with kickoff scheduled for October 30, 2026. According to our model, Airbus UK has a 33% chance of winning, while Caernarfon Town is favored at 46%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals for Airbus UK stand at 1.89, compared to Caernarfon Town's 2.24.
In terms of recent form, Airbus UK has recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches, while Caernarfon Town has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. Our model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 77%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.13
Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town attack and defence ratings
Airbus UK
Caernarfon Town
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caernarfon Town | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Airbus UK | 32.5% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Caernarfon Town | 46.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.5% |
| No | 23.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caernarfon Town win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.6% |
| 1-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Airbus UK vs Caernarfon Town stats
Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town recent form
| Airbus UK |
WWWLWL |
| Caernarfon Town |
WWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Airbus UK and Caernarfon Town season so far
Airbus UK record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Caernarfon Town record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).