Colwyn Bay
vs
Cardiff MET
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colwyn Bay
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Colwyn Bay is the favourite, not a value bet.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET
| Probability | Colwyn Bay | Draw | Cardiff MET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.9% | 27.9% | 25.2% |
| Market | 56.7% | 24.0% | 19.2% |
| Final | 54.3% | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +1.0% | +1.5% |
Why Colwyn Bay
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (our 54.3% × 1.67 − 1).
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET match preview
Colwyn Bay enters this match with a solid recent form, having won five of their last six games, while Cardiff MET has been more inconsistent, with two wins, a draw, and three losses in their last six outings. According to our model, Colwyn Bay has a 47% chance of winning, compared to Cardiff MET's 25%, with a 28% probability of a draw. The expected goals for Colwyn Bay stand at 1.54, while Cardiff MET is projected at 1.07, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.
In their last two encounters, Colwyn Bay has secured one victory and the other ended in a draw, with Cardiff MET yet to win against them. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Colwyn Bay, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET attack and defence ratings
Colwyn Bay
Cardiff MET
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Caernarfon Town vs Briton Ferry — team news & stats
- Cambrian & Clydach vs Airbus UK — team news & stats
- Holywell v Penybont — match page
- Trefelin vs Flint Town United — team news & stats
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno
- Barry Town v Haverfordwest County AFC — match page
Before and after this match
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colwyn Bay | 54.3% | 1.84 | -2.5% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colwyn Bay | 54.3% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Cardiff MET | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% |
| No | 47.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colwyn Bay win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET stats
Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET recent form
| Colwyn Bay |
WLWWWW |
| Cardiff MET |
LWWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colwyn Bay and Cardiff MET season so far
Colwyn Bay record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff MET record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Colwyn Bay | Cardiff MET | Wales Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Cardiff MET | Colwyn Bay | Wales Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2024-02-17 | Cardiff MET | Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup | 3-2 |
| 2023-09-30 | Colwyn Bay | Cardiff MET | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-26 | Cardiff MET | Colwyn Bay | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-16 | Colwyn Bay | Cardiff MET | Welsh Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.7%, draw 24.0%, away 19.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 3.74 | 4.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.75 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 3.74 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.82 | 4.77 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .