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Wales Premier League · ·Matchday 14

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno

Garuda Lions Prediction: GAP Connah S Quay FC

2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.84.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on GAP Connah S Quay FC

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: A. McInch

GAP Connah S Quay FC 67%
Draw 20%
Llandudno 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
67%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
53%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 0
11% of simulated outcomes

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno overview

Garuda Lions analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawLlandudno
Model74.2%16.6%9.2%
Market65.3%20.8%14.0%
Final67.5%19.7%12.8%
Edge+2.2%-1.0%-1.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.2% per unit staked (our 67.5% × 1.42 − 1).

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno match preview

GAP Connah S Quay FC enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 74%, while Llandudno has a significantly lower chance of 9%. The expected goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC stand at 2.59, compared to Llandudno's 0.84, indicating a substantial offensive advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability.

Recent form also reflects this disparity, with GAP Connah S Quay FC winning four of their last five matches, while Llandudno has struggled, recording four losses and a draw in their last five games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 67%, and there is a 53% chance that both teams will score. Overall, the data suggests a favorable outlook for GAP Connah S Quay FC in this fixture.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

GAP Connah S Q ↓ / Llandudno → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 8% 2 11% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Llandudno expected goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.59
Llandudno 0.84

Total expected goals: 3.43

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Llandudno attack and defence ratings

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.30 +30%
Defence 0.60 -40%

Llandudno

Attack 0.98 -2%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 67.5% 1.48 +2.2% 1.42
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.7% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.4% 1.87 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.2% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 GAP Connah S Quay FC win 53.4% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC67.5%
Draw19.7%
Llandudno12.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.4%
No46.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.2%
12 (either side)80.3%
X2 (draw or away)32.5%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win53.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss25.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.8%
3-09.3%
2-19.1%
Compare prices for this pick

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Llandudno recent form

newest first
GAP Connah S Quay FC WWWWWL
Llandudno LLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Llandudno season so far

league record

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Llandudno record

  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 2Draws 3Llandudno wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-21LlandudnoGAP Connah S Quay FCWelsh Cup2-1
2021-08-06GAP Connah S Quay FCLlandudnoLeague Cup2-0
2018-12-01GAP Connah S Quay FCLlandudnoPremier League3-0
2018-09-22LlandudnoGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-4
2017-10-21GAP Connah S Quay FCLlandudnoPremier League1-1
2017-08-26LlandudnoGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-0
2016-11-13LlandudnoGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-2
2016-09-20GAP Connah S Quay FCLlandudnoPremier League1-1
2016-03-26LlandudnoGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League1-2
2016-02-13GAP Connah S Quay FCLlandudnoPremier League2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Llandudno odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 65.3%, draw 20.8%, away 14.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.38 4.25 6.82
Bet365 1.38 4.33 6.25
Betano 1.40 4.40 6.20
Betfair 1.33 4.60 7.00
Dafabet 1.41 4.90 6.60
Marathonbet 1.37 4.25 6.50
Pinnacle 1.42 4.55 6.44
William Hill 1.40 4.20 6.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.39 ▼ -0.07
X 4.37 ▲ +0.42
2 6.50 ▲ +0.80

3 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 GAP Connah S Quay FC Predicted score 2 – 0 Low Bet Now
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