Llandudno
vs
The New Saints
Garuda Lions Prediction: The New Saints
0 – 4 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.19 vs 0.58.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Llandudno vs The New Saints overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Llandudno vs The New Saints
| Probability | Llandudno | Draw | The New Saints |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 1.5% | 5.0% | 93.5% |
| Market | 5.3% | 10.2% | 84.5% |
| Final | 4.4% | 8.9% | 86.7% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -1.3% | +2.3% |
Why The New Saints
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.19 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices The New Saints below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 86.7% × 1.12 − 1).
Llandudno vs The New Saints match preview
Llandudno faces a challenging matchup against The New Saints in the Wales Premier League. According to our model, Llandudno has a 5% chance of winning, while The New Saints hold a commanding 85% probability of victory. The expected goals for Llandudno stand at 0.58, in stark contrast to The New Saints' 4.19. Recent form highlights Llandudno's struggles, with six consecutive losses, while The New Saints are on a strong run of six matches without defeat, including five wins.
In their last ten encounters, Llandudno has yet to secure a win against The New Saints, who have dominated with ten victories. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-4, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Additionally, there is an 85% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring has a 43% probability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Llandudno and The New Saints expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.77
Llandudno and The New Saints attack and defence ratings
Llandudno
The New Saints
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Ammanford AFC v Briton Ferry — match page
- Penybont vs Caernarfon Town — team news & stats
- Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cardiff MET
- Cambrian & Clydach v Barry Town — match page
- Holywell vs Airbus UK — team news & stats
- Trefelin vs Colwyn Bay
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Llandudno vs The New Saints markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | The New Saints | 86.7% | 1.15 | +2.3% | 1.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.4% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 95.6% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llandudno | 4.4% |
| Draw | 8.9% | |
| The New Saints | 86.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.3% |
| No | 56.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 13.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 91.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 95.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | The New Saints win | 83.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9.8% | |
| Loss | 6.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-4 | 11.0% |
| 0-3 | 10.5% | |
| 0-5 | 9.2% |
Llandudno vs The New Saints stats
Llandudno and The New Saints recent form
| Llandudno |
LLLLLL |
| The New Saints |
DWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Llandudno and The New Saints season so far
Llandudno record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
The New Saints record
- They have won 13 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 3.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game at home against 3.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 13 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Llandudno vs The New Saints head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | The New Saints | Llandudno | Wales Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-06 | The New Saints | Llandudno | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2019-03-02 | Llandudno | The New Saints | Welsh Cup | 1-8 |
| 2018-12-22 | Llandudno | The New Saints | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2018-10-17 | The New Saints | Llandudno | Premier League | 6-1 |
| 2017-11-17 | Llandudno | The New Saints | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2017-09-22 | The New Saints | Llandudno | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2016-10-15 | The New Saints | Llandudno | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2016-08-20 | Llandudno | The New Saints | Premier League | 0-5 |
| 2016-04-23 | Llandudno | The New Saints | Premier League | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Llandudno vs The New Saints odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 5.3%, draw 10.2%, away 84.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 17.50 | 8.90 | 1.05 |
| Bet365 | 17.00 | 12.00 | 1.08 |
| BetVictor | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.08 |
| Betano | 16.00 | 7.60 | 1.10 |
| Betfair | 14.00 | 10.00 | 1.07 |
| Dafabet | 18.00 | 9.40 | 1.10 |
| Marathonbet | 17.50 | 8.90 | 1.05 |
| Pinnacle | 19.66 | 10.39 | 1.09 |
| SBO | 10.12 | 6.66 | 1.12 |
| William Hill | 19.00 | 9.00 | 1.11 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .