Ammanford AFC
vs
Briton Ferry
Garuda Lions Prediction: Briton Ferry
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Briton Ferry is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry
| Probability | Ammanford AFC | Draw | Briton Ferry |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.4% | 22.3% | 62.2% |
| Market | 17.3% | 22.5% | 60.2% |
| Final | 16.8% | 22.4% | 60.7% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.0% | +0.5% |
Why Briton Ferry
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 0.95.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (our 60.7% × 1.53 − 1).
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry match preview
Ammanford AFC faces Briton Ferry in the Wales Premier League, with Ammanford's chances of winning estimated at 16% compared to Briton Ferry's 61%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Ammanford AFC stand at 0.95, while Briton Ferry is projected at 2.07, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Ammanford AFC has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Briton Ferry has managed two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Briton Ferry, who has won 7 of the last 10 encounters, with Ammanford securing 2 victories and 1 draw. The model also suggests a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry attack and defence ratings
Ammanford AFC
Briton Ferry
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Briton Ferry | 60.7% | 1.65 | +0.5% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Briton Ferry win | 39.3% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ammanford AFC | 16.8% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Briton Ferry | 60.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% |
| No | 45.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Briton Ferry win | 39.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 37.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 0-2 | 10.5% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry stats
Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry recent form
| Ammanford AFC |
LLWWLL |
| Briton Ferry |
WLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ammanford AFC and Briton Ferry season so far
Ammanford AFC record
- They have won 2 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Briton Ferry record
- They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Briton Ferry | Ammanford AFC | Wales Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-09 | Briton Ferry | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship | 4-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Ammanford AFC | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-19 | Ammanford AFC | Briton Ferry | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-10 | Ammanford AFC | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-04 | Briton Ferry | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-04 | Briton Ferry | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-07-27 | Ammanford AFC | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship | 4-3 |
| 2019-12-13 | Ammanford AFC | Briton Ferry | FAW Championship | 1-3 |
| 2019-08-23 | Briton Ferry | Ammanford AFC | FAW Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ammanford AFC vs Briton Ferry odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.3%, draw 22.5%, away 60.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.58 | 4.05 | 1.47 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.60 | 4.30 | 1.52 |
| Marathonbet | 5.35 | 4.05 | 1.46 |
| Pinnacle | 5.15 | 4.15 | 1.51 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 3.82 | 1.45 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .