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Wales Premier League · ·Matchday 16

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United

Garuda Lions Prediction: GAP Connah S Quay FC

1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — GAP Connah S Quay FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on GAP Connah S Quay FC

Essity Stadium, FlintReferee: R. Jenkins

GAP Connah S Quay FC 66%
Draw 21%
Flint Town United 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
66%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
90%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
43%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
14% of simulated outcomes

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGAP Connah S Quay FCDrawFlint Town United
Model61.2%25.0%13.7%
Market67.1%19.1%13.8%
Final65.7%20.6%13.8%
Edge-1.5%+1.5%-0.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why GAP Connah S Quay FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (our 65.7% × 1.40 − 1).

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United match preview

GAP Connah S Quay FC is favored in their upcoming match against Flint Town United, with a 67% probability of winning according to our model. They have shown strong recent form, going unbeaten in their last six matches, while Flint Town United has had mixed results, winning four of their last six but losing two. The expected goals for GAP Connah S Quay FC stands at 1.75, compared to Flint Town United's 0.71, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.

Historically, GAP Connah S Quay FC has dominated their recent encounters with Flint Town United, winning 8 out of the last 10 matches, with only 1 draw and 1 win for Flint. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 14% probability. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, while both teams scoring is at 43%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

GAP Connah S Q ↓ / Flint Town Uni → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 14% 12% 2 13% 9% 3 8% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United expected goals

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.75
Flint Town United 0.71

Total expected goals: 2.47

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United attack and defence ratings

GAP Connah S Quay FC

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.50 -50%

Flint Town United

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 16 fixtures

Wales Premier League

Before and after this match

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC 65.7% 1.52 -1.5% 1.40
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.2% 1.81 — —
Both teams to score No 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.2% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.8% 2.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2GAP Connah S Quay FC65.7%
Draw20.6%
Flint Town United13.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.8%
Under 2.555.2%
Both teams to scoreYes43.3%
No56.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.2%
12 (either side)79.4%
X2 (draw or away)34.3%
Handicap -1GAP Connah S Quay FC win36.0%
Push (exactly one goal)25.3%
Loss38.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-013.8%
2-013.0%
1-111.7%
Compare prices for this pick

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United stats

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United recent form

newest first
GAP Connah S Quay FC DWWWWW
Flint Town United WWLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

GAP Connah S Quay FC and Flint Town United season so far

league record

GAP Connah S Quay FC record

  • They have won 11 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Flint Town United record

  • They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8GAP Connah S Quay FC wins 1Draws 1Flint Town United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-31Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League1-2
2025-12-26Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCWales Premier League0-2
2025-08-25GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedWales Premier League3-2
2025-03-11GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedPremier League4-0
2025-01-25Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League2-1
2024-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedPremier League7-2
2024-08-26Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-1
2023-12-09Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCWelsh Cup0-3
2022-12-31Flint Town UnitedGAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League0-0
2022-12-26GAP Connah S Quay FCFlint Town UnitedPremier League2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Flint Town United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 67.1%, draw 19.1%, away 13.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.34 4.70 6.80
Bet365 1.33 5.00 5.75
BetVictor 1.30 3.90 5.75
Betano 1.37 4.60 6.50
Betfair 1.33 4.75 6.50
Dafabet 1.37 5.00 7.20
Marathonbet 1.33 4.70 6.50
Pinnacle 1.39 4.83 6.83
SBO 1.31 4.38 6.57
William Hill 1.40 4.40 6.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 ▼ -0.12
X 4.70 ▲ +0.35
2 6.50 ▲ +0.53

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 GAP Connah S Quay FC Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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