Aruba
vs
Martinique
Garuda Lions Prediction: Martinique
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Martinique is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aruba vs Martinique overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aruba vs Martinique
| Probability | Aruba | Draw | Martinique |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 28.1% | 38.7% |
| Market | 16.9% | 20.6% | 62.6% |
| Final | 20.9% | 22.4% | 56.6% |
| Edge | +4.1% | +1.9% | -6.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (our 56.6% × 1.53 − 1).
Aruba vs Martinique match preview
Aruba faces Martinique in the CONCACAF Nations League with a kickoff scheduled for November 12, 2026. According to our model, Aruba has a 21% chance of winning, while Martinique is favored with a 57% likelihood. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Martinique, with a 9% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.30 for Aruba and 1.42 for Martinique, suggesting a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Aruba has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Martinique has secured two wins in their last six outings. The probabilities indicate a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aruba and Martinique expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Aruba and Martinique attack and defence ratings
Aruba
Martinique
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Play-In Final fixtures
Before and after this match
Aruba vs Martinique markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Martinique | 56.6% | 1.77 | -6.0% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aruba | 20.9% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Martinique | 56.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Martinique win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.1% |
Aruba vs Martinique stats
Aruba and Martinique recent form
| Aruba |
LWWWLD |
| Martinique |
DWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aruba vs Martinique head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Aruba vs Martinique odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.9%, draw 20.6%, away 62.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.72 | 4.45 | 1.47 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.33 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 4.30 | 1.52 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.70 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 5.65 | 4.45 | 1.46 |
| Pinnacle | 5.29 | 4.51 | 1.45 |
| SBO | 5.03 | 3.98 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |