Montserrat
vs
Nicaragua
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nicaragua
1 – 2 Predicted score · 3% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nicaragua is the favourite, not a value bet.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Montserrat vs Nicaragua
| Probability | Montserrat | Draw | Nicaragua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.0% | 18.3% | 9.8% |
| Market | 9.2% | 15.5% | 75.4% |
| Final | 24.9% | 16.2% | 59.0% |
| Edge | +15.7% | +0.7% | -16.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -25.7% per unit staked (our 59.0% × 1.26 − 1).
Montserrat vs Nicaragua match preview
Montserrat faces Nicaragua in the CONCACAF Nations League with a projected outcome favoring the visitors. According to our model, Nicaragua has a 59% probability of winning, while Montserrat stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 2.38 for Montserrat and 0.79 for Nicaragua.
Recent form shows Montserrat with four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Nicaragua has struggled, recording five losses followed by one win. In their last three encounters, Nicaragua has maintained dominance, winning all matches against Montserrat. The model indicates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Montserrat and Nicaragua expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Montserrat and Nicaragua attack and defence ratings
Montserrat
Nicaragua
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Play-In Final fixtures
Before and after this match
Montserrat vs Nicaragua markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nicaragua | 59.0% | 1.70 | -16.4% | 1.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montserrat | 24.9% |
| Draw | 16.2% | |
| Nicaragua | 59.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nicaragua win | 3.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 6.8% | |
| Loss | 90.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.0% |
| 3-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
Montserrat vs Nicaragua stats
Montserrat and Nicaragua recent form
| Montserrat |
WWWWLW |
| Nicaragua |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | Nicaragua | Montserrat | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-17 | Nicaragua | Montserrat | CONCACAF Nations League | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-13 | Montserrat | Nicaragua | CONCACAF Nations League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Montserrat vs Nicaragua odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.2%, draw 15.5%, away 75.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.20 | 5.95 | 1.23 |
| BetVictor | 9.50 | 5.75 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 9.25 | 5.60 | 1.26 |
| Betfair | 9.50 | 6.00 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 11.00 | 6.40 | 1.26 |
| Marathonbet | 10.25 | 5.95 | 1.22 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.22 |