Saint Martin
vs
El Salvador
Garuda Lions Prediction: El Salvador
1 – 2 Predicted score · 1% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — El Salvador is the favourite, not a value bet.
Saint Martin vs El Salvador overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Saint Martin vs El Salvador
| Probability | Saint Martin | Draw | El Salvador |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 89.7% | 7.6% | 2.7% |
| Market | 8.9% | 17.6% | 73.5% |
| Final | 29.1% | 15.1% | 55.8% |
| Edge | +20.2% | -2.5% | -17.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -29.7% per unit staked (our 55.8% × 1.26 − 1).
Saint Martin vs El Salvador match preview
In the upcoming CONCACAF Nations League match, Saint Martin faces El Salvador, with a probability of 29% for a Saint Martin victory, 15% for a draw, and 56% for El Salvador winning, according to our model. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, and there is an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Saint Martin's recent form shows a mixed bag with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while El Salvador has struggled, recording just one win and five losses in the same period. The expected goals for Saint Martin stand at 3.65, contrasting sharply with El Salvador's 0.63, highlighting a potential advantage for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Saint Martin and El Salvador expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.29
Saint Martin and El Salvador attack and defence ratings
Saint Martin
El Salvador
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Play-In Final fixtures
Before and after this match
Saint Martin vs El Salvador markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Salvador | 55.8% | 1.79 | -17.7% | 1.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 97.3% | 1.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint Martin | 29.1% |
| Draw | 15.1% | |
| El Salvador | 55.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Salvador win | 0.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 2.0% | |
| Loss | 97.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 11.2% |
| 4-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Saint Martin vs El Salvador stats
Saint Martin and El Salvador recent form
| Saint Martin |
WWLWWL |
| El Salvador |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Saint Martin vs El Salvador head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Saint Martin vs El Salvador odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.9%, draw 17.6%, away 73.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.40 | 4.80 | 1.26 |
| Betfair | 9.50 | 5.50 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 14.00 | 6.80 | 1.22 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 4.80 | 1.25 |