Nicaragua
vs
Montserrat
Garuda Lions Prediction: Montserrat
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nicaragua vs Montserrat
| Probability | Nicaragua | Draw | Montserrat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.0% | 20.2% | 67.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.0% | 20.2% | 67.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Montserrat
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat match preview
Nicaragua faces Montserrat in the CONCACAF Nations League with contrasting recent form. Nicaragua has struggled, recording five losses followed by a single win, while Montserrat has been more successful, winning four of their last six matches. According to our model, Nicaragua has a 12% chance of winning, while Montserrat is favored with a 68% probability. The expected goals for Nicaragua stand at 0.84, compared to Montserrat's 2.22.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, which aligns with the expectation of over 2.5 goals at 59%. Additionally, there is a 52% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Nicaragua has dominated their past encounters with three wins against Montserrat, who has yet to secure a victory in their head-to-head meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nicaragua and Montserrat expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Nicaragua and Montserrat attack and defence ratings
Nicaragua
Montserrat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Play-In Final fixtures
Before and after this match
Nicaragua vs Montserrat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montserrat | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.0% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Montserrat win | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nicaragua | 12.0% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Montserrat | 67.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montserrat win | 45.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 32.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 1-1 | 9.6% |
Nicaragua vs Montserrat stats
Nicaragua and Montserrat recent form
| Nicaragua |
LLLLLW |
| Montserrat |
WWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nicaragua vs Montserrat head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | Nicaragua | Montserrat | World Cup - Qualification CONCACAF | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-17 | Nicaragua | Montserrat | CONCACAF Nations League | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-13 | Montserrat | Nicaragua | CONCACAF Nations League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.