Martinique
vs
Aruba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Martinique
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.21.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Martinique vs Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Martinique vs Aruba
| Probability | Martinique | Draw | Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 27.6% | 29.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.2% | 27.6% | 29.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Martinique
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.21.
Martinique vs Aruba match preview
In the upcoming CONCACAF Nations League match, Martinique faces Aruba with a probability of winning set at 43% for Martinique, 28% for a draw, and 29% for Aruba according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Martinique, with an expected goals tally of 1.52 for Martinique and 1.21 for Aruba.
Both teams have shown varying form recently, with Martinique recording a sequence of D-W-L-L-D-W, while Aruba has a more mixed record of L-W-W-W-L-D. The model suggests a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Martinique and Aruba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Martinique and Aruba attack and defence ratings
Martinique
Aruba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Play-In Final fixtures
Before and after this match
Martinique vs Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Martinique | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Martinique | 43.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Aruba | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Martinique win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Martinique vs Aruba stats
Martinique and Aruba recent form
| Martinique |
DWLLDW |
| Aruba |
LWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.