El Salvador
vs
Saint Martin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Saint Martin
0 – 3 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.41 vs 0.68.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
El Salvador vs Saint Martin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: El Salvador vs Saint Martin
| Probability | El Salvador | Draw | Saint Martin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 3.6% | 9.2% | 87.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 3.6% | 9.2% | 87.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Saint Martin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.41 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
El Salvador vs Saint Martin match preview
In the upcoming CONCACAF Nations League match, El Salvador faces Saint Martin with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model predicts El Salvador has a 4% chance of winning, while Saint Martin is favored with an 87% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-3 in favor of Saint Martin, occurring at an 11% likelihood.
The expected goals reflect this trend, with El Salvador projected to score 0.68 and Saint Martin 3.41. Additionally, there is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring stands at 48%. Recent form shows El Salvador struggling with a record of D-L-L-W-L-L, whereas Saint Martin has shown stronger performance with W-W-L-W-W-L.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
El Salvador and Saint Martin expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.09
El Salvador and Saint Martin attack and defence ratings
El Salvador
Saint Martin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Play-In Final fixtures
Before and after this match
El Salvador vs Saint Martin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint Martin | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 96.4% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Saint Martin win | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Salvador | 3.6% |
| Draw | 9.2% | |
| Saint Martin | 87.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 22.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 12.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 90.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 96.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Saint Martin win | 72.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.1% | |
| Loss | 12.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-3 | 11.1% |
| 0-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-4 | 9.5% |
El Salvador vs Saint Martin stats
El Salvador and Saint Martin recent form
| El Salvador |
DLLWLL |
| Saint Martin |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.