Nkana
vs
Nchanga Rangers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nkana
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers
| Probability | Nkana | Draw | Nchanga Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.3% | 26.1% | 10.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.3% | 26.1% | 10.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nkana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers match preview
Nkana will face Nchanga Rangers in the Zambia Super League, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Nkana has a 63% probability of winning, while Nchanga Rangers has an 11% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nkana, occurring with an 18% probability. Expected goals are 1.60 for Nkana and 0.52 for Nchanga Rangers, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Nkana with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Nchanga Rangers has struggled with four losses and one draw, followed by a win. In their last ten encounters, Nkana has recorded three wins, alongside four draws and three wins for Nchanga Rangers, suggesting a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nkana and Nchanga Rangers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Nkana and Nchanga Rangers attack and defence ratings
Nkana
Nchanga Rangers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Green Eagles v Roan United — match page
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats
- Red Arrows v Kabwe Warriors — match page
- Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars
- ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers — team news & stats
- Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi — team news & stats
- Power Dynamos vs Trident
- Chirundu Utd v Mutondo Stars — match page
Before and after this match
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkana | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 36.7% | 2.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkana | 63.3% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Nchanga Rangers | 10.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.3% |
| No | 66.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nkana win | 35.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.4% | |
| Loss | 36.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.2% |
| 2-0 | 15.5% | |
| 0-0 | 12.9% |
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers stats
Nkana and Nchanga Rangers recent form
| Nkana |
WWDLWL |
| Nchanga Rangers |
LLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Nkana | Nchanga Rangers | Zambia Super League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Nchanga Rangers | Nkana | Zambia Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Nchanga Rangers | Nkana | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-23 | Nkana | Nchanga Rangers | Super League | 0-0 |
| 2023-02-12 | Nkana | Nchanga Rangers | Super League | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-01 | Nchanga Rangers | Nkana | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2018-09-19 | Nchanga Rangers | Nkana | Super League | 0-2 |
| 2018-06-13 | Nkana | Nchanga Rangers | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2017-08-06 | Nkana | Nchanga Rangers | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2017-04-14 | Nchanga Rangers | Nkana | Super League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.