ZESCO United
vs
Mufulira Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: ZESCO United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers
| Probability | ZESCO United | Draw | Mufulira Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.7% | 20.9% | 6.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 72.7% | 20.9% | 6.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ZESCO United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.42.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers match preview
ZESCO United is favored to win against Mufulira Wanderers with a 73% probability, while the chances of a draw stand at 21% and Mufulira Wanderers at 7%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at an 18% probability. ZESCO United's expected goals are 1.90, compared to Mufulira Wanderers' low 0.42, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, ZESCO United has recorded a mixed performance with one win in their last six matches, while Mufulira Wanderers has struggled, failing to secure a win in their last six outings. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows ZESCO United with 6 wins, 1 draw, and Mufulira Wanderers with 3 wins, further highlighting ZESCO's historical advantage in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ZESCO United and Mufulira Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
ZESCO United and Mufulira Wanderers attack and defence ratings
ZESCO United
Mufulira Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Green Eagles v Roan United — match page
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats
- Red Arrows v Kabwe Warriors — match page
- Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars
- Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers
- Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi — team news & stats
- Power Dynamos vs Trident
- Chirundu Utd v Mutondo Stars — match page
Before and after this match
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.5% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 72.7% |
| Draw | 20.9% | |
| Mufulira Wanderers | 6.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.9% |
| No | 70.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win | 46.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 27.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.9% |
| 2-0 | 17.8% | |
| 3-0 | 11.3% |
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers stats
ZESCO United and Mufulira Wanderers recent form
| ZESCO United |
LDWWWL |
| Mufulira Wanderers |
DLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | ZESCO United | Mufulira Wanderers | Zambia Super League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Mufulira Wanderers | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Mufulira Wanderers | ZESCO United | Super League | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | ZESCO United | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2024-06-01 | Mufulira Wanderers | ZESCO United | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2023-12-23 | ZESCO United | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2019-04-27 | ZESCO United | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League | 6-0 |
| 2019-03-13 | Mufulira Wanderers | ZESCO United | Super League | 2-1 |
| 2017-12-02 | ZESCO United | Mufulira Wanderers | Super League | 3-2 |
| 2017-07-26 | Mufulira Wanderers | ZESCO United | Super League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.