ZESCO United
vs
Mutondo Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: ZESCO United
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars
| Probability | ZESCO United | Draw | Mutondo Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 20.0% | 11.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.0% | 20.0% | 11.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ZESCO United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars match preview
ZESCO United will face Mutondo Stars in the Zambia Super League on October 24, 2026. According to our model, ZESCO United has a 69% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 20% and Mutondo Stars at 11%. The expected goals for ZESCO United is 2.21, compared to 0.79 for Mutondo Stars, suggesting a potential scoreline of 2-0, which has a likelihood of 12%.
In terms of recent form, ZESCO United has recorded one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches, while Mutondo Stars has two wins, one draw, and two losses. The head-to-head record shows ZESCO United with one win and Mutondo Stars also with one win in their last two encounters. The model indicates a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ZESCO United and Mutondo Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
ZESCO United and Mutondo Stars attack and defence ratings
ZESCO United
Mutondo Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Mufulira Wanderers v Chirundu Utd — match page
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- Nkwazi vs Green Eagles
- Zanaco vs Kansanshi Dynamos — team news & stats
- Konkola Blades vs Nkana
- Roan United v Red Arrows — match page
Before and after this match
ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 69.0% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Mutondo Stars | 11.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win | 45.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 31.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars stats
ZESCO United and Mutondo Stars recent form
| ZESCO United |
LDWWWL |
| Mutondo Stars |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ZESCO United vs Mutondo Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Mutondo Stars | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | ZESCO United | Mutondo Stars | Zambia Super League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.