Garuda Lions
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Zambia Super League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Roan United vs ZESCO United

0 – 4 Full time

Roan United 23%
Draw 31%
ZESCO United 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Roan United vs ZESCO United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Roan United vs ZESCO United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRoan UnitedDrawZESCO United
Model23.7%35.6%40.7%
Market22.5%30.0%47.4%
Final22.8%31.4%45.8%
Edge+0.3%+1.4%-1.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why ZESCO United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Roan United ↓ / ZESCO United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 19% 17% 1 11% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 81%
2+ goals 53%
3+ goals 25%
No goals 19%

Roan United and ZESCO United expected goals

Roan United 0.72
ZESCO United 1.02

Total expected goals: 1.74

Roan United and ZESCO United attack and defence ratings

Roan United

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.90 -10%

ZESCO United

Attack 1.61 +61%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Roan United vs ZESCO United: result vs prediction

Roan United 0 – 4 ZESCO United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Roan United vs ZESCO United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 ZESCO United 45.8% 2.19 -1.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 74.7% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score No 65.9% 1.52 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 77.2% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.3% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Roan United22.8%
Draw31.4%
ZESCO United45.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525.3%
Under 2.574.7%
Both teams to scoreYes34.1%
No65.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.2%
12 (either side)68.6%
X2 (draw or away)77.2%
Handicap -1ZESCO United win16.6%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss59.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-018.8%
0-116.7%
1-114.2%

Roan United vs ZESCO United stats

Roan United and ZESCO United recent form

newest first
Roan United LDW
ZESCO United WDLDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Roan United vs ZESCO United head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

0Roan United wins 3Draws 3ZESCO United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2014-08-16ZESCO UnitedRoan UnitedSuper League2-0
2014-04-20Roan UnitedZESCO UnitedSuper League1-2
2013-09-22Roan UnitedZESCO UnitedSuper League0-2
2013-05-04ZESCO UnitedRoan UnitedSuper League0-0
2012-08-18Roan UnitedZESCO UnitedSuper League1-1
2012-04-21ZESCO UnitedRoan UnitedSuper League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Roan United vs ZESCO United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 22.5%, draw 30.0%, away 47.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 4.00 3.00 1.90

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.