NAPSA Stars
vs
Nkana
Garuda Lions Prediction: NAPSA Stars
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NAPSA Stars vs Nkana
| Probability | NAPSA Stars | Draw | Nkana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 36.5% | 22.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.8% | 36.5% | 22.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why NAPSA Stars
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.66.
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana match preview
NAPSA Stars and Nkana are set to clash in the Zambia Super League on October 14, 2026. According to our model, NAPSA Stars have a 41% probability of winning, with a 37% chance of a draw and Nkana at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of NAPSA Stars, occurring with an 18% probability. Expected goals are 0.99 for NAPSA Stars and 0.66 for Nkana, indicating a tighter contest.
In terms of recent form, NAPSA Stars have recorded a draw, win, draw, win, loss, and draw in their last six matches, while Nkana's recent performances include a win, draw, loss, win, loss, and draw. Head-to-head results show NAPSA Stars have yet to secure a win against Nkana, with one draw and one loss in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NAPSA Stars and Nkana expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.65
NAPSA Stars and Nkana attack and defence ratings
NAPSA Stars
Nkana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Green Eagles vs Red Arrows
- Mufulira Wanderers v Nkwazi — match page
- Nchanga Rangers vs Trident
- Konkola Blades v Man Utd Zambia Academy — match page
- Kansanshi Dynamos vs Power Dynamos — team news & stats
- Roan United vs ZESCO United
- Mutondo Stars v Green Buffaloes — match page
- Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors — team news & stats
Before and after this match
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAPSA Stars | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAPSA Stars | 40.8% |
| Draw | 36.5% | |
| Nkana | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.6% |
| No | 68.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 63.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | NAPSA Stars win | 16.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.5% |
| 1-0 | 17.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana stats
NAPSA Stars and Nkana recent form
| NAPSA Stars |
DWDWLD |
| Nkana |
WDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NAPSA Stars vs Nkana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | NAPSA Stars | Nkana | Zambia Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Nkana | NAPSA Stars | Zambia Super League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.