NAPSA Stars
vs
Nchanga Rangers
Garuda Lions Prediction: NAPSA Stars
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers
| Probability | NAPSA Stars | Draw | Nchanga Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 33.7% | 14.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.8% | 33.7% | 14.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why NAPSA Stars
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers match preview
NAPSA Stars are set to face Nchanga Rangers in the Zambia Super League on October 24, 2026. According to our model, NAPSA Stars have a 52% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 34% and Nchanga Rangers at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of NAPSA Stars, with a 21% chance of occurring. The expected goals are 1.17 for NAPSA Stars and 0.50 for Nchanga Rangers, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, NAPSA Stars have recorded three draws and two wins in their last five matches, while Nchanga Rangers have struggled with four losses and a draw, followed by a win. The head-to-head record shows NAPSA Stars with no wins against Nchanga Rangers in their last two encounters, including one draw and one loss. Overall, the confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
NAPSA Stars and Nchanga Rangers expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.67
NAPSA Stars and Nchanga Rangers attack and defence ratings
NAPSA Stars
Nchanga Rangers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
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- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Power Dynamos
- Mufulira Wanderers v Chirundu Utd — match page
- Nkwazi vs Green Eagles
- ZESCO United v Mutondo Stars — match page
- Zanaco vs Kansanshi Dynamos — team news & stats
- Konkola Blades vs Nkana
- Roan United v Red Arrows — match page
Before and after this match
NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAPSA Stars | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NAPSA Stars | 51.8% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Nchanga Rangers | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.1% |
| No | 71.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | NAPSA Stars win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.1% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 21.0% |
| 0-0 | 19.9% | |
| 2-0 | 13.0% |
NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers stats
NAPSA Stars and Nchanga Rangers recent form
| NAPSA Stars |
DDDWDW |
| Nchanga Rangers |
LLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
NAPSA Stars vs Nchanga Rangers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | NAPSA Stars | Nchanga Rangers | Zambia Super League | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Nchanga Rangers | NAPSA Stars | Zambia Super League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.