Chirundu Utd
vs
Mutondo Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chirundu Utd
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars
| Probability | Chirundu Utd | Draw | Mutondo Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.5% | 33.0% | 25.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.5% | 33.0% | 25.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Chirundu Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.85.
Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars match preview
Chirundu Utd faces Mutondo Stars in the Zambia Super League, with kickoff set for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Chirundu Utd has a 41% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 33% and Mutondo Stars at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Chirundu Utd, with a probability of 14%. Expected goals are calculated at 1.15 for Chirundu Utd and 0.85 for Mutondo Stars.
Recent form shows Chirundu Utd with a draw and a loss in their last two matches, whereas Mutondo Stars has experienced three consecutive losses followed by a win and a draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 32%, while the probability of both teams scoring stands at 40%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chirundu Utd and Mutondo Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Chirundu Utd and Mutondo Stars attack and defence ratings
Chirundu Utd
Mutondo Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Green Eagles v Roan United — match page
- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats
- Red Arrows v Kabwe Warriors — match page
- Zanaco vs NAPSA Stars
- Nkana vs Nchanga Rangers
- ZESCO United vs Mufulira Wanderers — team news & stats
- Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi — team news & stats
- Power Dynamos vs Trident
Before and after this match
Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chirundu Utd | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chirundu Utd | 41.5% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| Mutondo Stars | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.3% |
| No | 59.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chirundu Utd win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 58.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.5% | |
| 1-0 | 14.3% |
Chirundu Utd vs Mutondo Stars stats
Chirundu Utd and Mutondo Stars recent form
| Chirundu Utd |
DL |
| Mutondo Stars |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.