Nkwazi
vs
Chirundu Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nkwazi
1 – 0 Predicted score · 20% model probability
Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd
| Probability | Nkwazi | Draw | Chirundu Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.0% | 35.6% | 17.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.0% | 35.6% | 17.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nkwazi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd match preview
Nkwazi will face Chirundu Utd in the Zambia Super League, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model gives Nkwazi a 47% chance of winning, while a draw is at 36% and Chirundu Utd at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nkwazi, with a probability of 20%. Both teams have struggled to score, reflected in the expected goals of 1.07 for Nkwazi and 0.55 for Chirundu Utd.
In terms of recent form, Nkwazi has recorded two losses, one win, one draw, and one more loss in their last five matches. Chirundu Utd comes into this match after a loss, indicating a challenging period for them. The probabilities suggest a low-scoring affair, with only a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nkwazi and Chirundu Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.62
Nkwazi and Chirundu Utd attack and defence ratings
Nkwazi
Chirundu Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
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- Man Utd Zambia Academy vs Kansanshi Dynamos
- Nkana v Makeni All Stars — match page
- Red Arrows vs Mufulira Wanderers
- ZESCO United v Green Eagles — match page
- Roan United vs Green Buffaloes
- Trident v NAPSA Stars — match page
- Zanaco vs Konkola Blades — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkwazi | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkwazi | 47.0% |
| Draw | 35.6% | |
| Chirundu Utd | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.8% |
| No | 71.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nkwazi win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.0% |
| 1-0 | 20.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
Nkwazi vs Chirundu Utd stats
Nkwazi and Chirundu Utd recent form
| Nkwazi |
LLWWDL |
| Chirundu Utd |
L |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.