Nkwazi
vs
Mutondo Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nkwazi
1 – 0 Predicted score · 22% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.41.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Nkwazi vs Mutondo Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nkwazi vs Mutondo Stars
| Probability | Nkwazi | Draw | Mutondo Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.4% | 30.3% | 10.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.4% | 30.3% | 10.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nkwazi
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.41.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Nkwazi vs Mutondo Stars match preview
Nkwazi will host Mutondo Stars in the Zambia Super League on November 18, 2026. According to our model, Nkwazi has a 59% probability of winning, while Mutondo Stars has a 10% chance. The expected goals for Nkwazi stand at 1.33, compared to just 0.41 for Mutondo Stars. Recent form shows Nkwazi with a mixed record of one win, three draws, and two losses, while Mutondo Stars has struggled, recording six consecutive matches without a win.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Nkwazi, with a probability of 22%. Both teams scoring is estimated at 26%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 25%. In their last two encounters, Nkwazi has yet to secure a win, with one draw and one loss to Mutondo Stars.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nkwazi and Mutondo Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.74
Nkwazi and Mutondo Stars attack and defence ratings
Nkwazi
Mutondo Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Power Dynamos vs Zanaco
- ZESCO United v Red Arrows — match page
- Kansanshi Dynamos vs Trident
- Roan United v Chirundu Utd — match page
- Makeni All Stars vs NAPSA Stars — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nkwazi vs Mutondo Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkwazi | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nkwazi | 59.4% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Mutondo Stars | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.6% |
| No | 74.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nkwazi win | 30.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29.4% | |
| Loss | 40.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 22.4% |
| 0-0 | 18.5% | |
| 2-0 | 15.6% |
Nkwazi vs Mutondo Stars stats
Nkwazi and Mutondo Stars recent form
| Nkwazi |
WDDDDL |
| Mutondo Stars |
DDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nkwazi and Mutondo Stars season so far
Nkwazi record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Mutondo Stars record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Nkwazi vs Mutondo Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Nkwazi | Mutondo Stars | Zambia Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Mutondo Stars | Nkwazi | Zambia Super League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.