Mutondo Stars
vs
Mufulira Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mutondo Stars
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers
| Probability | Mutondo Stars | Draw | Mufulira Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 33.0% | 22.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.4% | 33.0% | 22.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mutondo Stars
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers match preview
Mutondo Stars are set to face Mufulira Wanderers in the Zambia Super League, with kickoff scheduled for November 5, 2026. According to our model, Mutondo Stars have a 44% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 33% and Mufulira Wanderers at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Mutondo Stars, with an expected goals tally of 1.18 for them and 0.77 for Mufulira Wanderers.
Recent form shows Mutondo Stars struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a win, while Mufulira Wanderers have recorded two draws and three losses in their last five matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Mutondo Stars have not secured a victory, with one draw and one win for Mufulira Wanderers. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.95
Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Mutondo Stars
Mufulira Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Kabwe Warriors v Roan United — match page
- NAPSA Stars vs Power Dynamos — team news & stats
- Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos
- Red Arrows v Nkwazi — match page
- Zanaco vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — team news & stats
- Green Buffaloes v ZESCO United — match page
- Nchanga Rangers vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats
- Chirundu Utd v Green Eagles — match page
Before and after this match
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mutondo Stars | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mutondo Stars | 44.4% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| Mufulira Wanderers | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.4% |
| No | 61.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mutondo Stars win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.5% |
| 0-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers stats
Mutondo Stars and Mufulira Wanderers recent form
| Mutondo Stars |
LLLLLW |
| Mufulira Wanderers |
LDDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Mufulira Wanderers | Mutondo Stars | Zambia Super League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Mutondo Stars | Mufulira Wanderers | Zambia Super League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.