Red Arrows
vs
Nkwazi
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Arrows
1 – 0 Predicted score · 27% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.88 vs 0.28.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Arrows vs Nkwazi
| Probability | Red Arrows | Draw | Nkwazi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 41.0% | 10.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.4% | 41.0% | 10.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Red Arrows
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.88 vs 0.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi match preview
Red Arrows are set to face Nkwazi in the Zambia Super League on November 4, 2026. According to our model, Red Arrows have a 48% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 41% and Nkwazi at 11%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Red Arrows, with a 27% likelihood. Both teams have struggled to find the net, as indicated by expected goals of 0.88 for Red Arrows and 0.28 for Nkwazi.
In terms of recent form, Red Arrows have recorded a sequence of results including three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Nkwazi has drawn three times but lost their last two fixtures. The head-to-head record shows that in their last two encounters, there have been no wins for either side, with both matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Red Arrows and Nkwazi expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.16
Red Arrows and Nkwazi attack and defence ratings
Red Arrows
Nkwazi
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 48.4% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Arrows | 48.4% |
| Draw | 41.0% | |
| Nkwazi | 10.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 11.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 88.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 15.1% |
| No | 84.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 59.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Arrows win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 30.4% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 32.0% |
| 1-0 | 26.8% | |
| 2-0 | 12.2% |
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi stats
Red Arrows and Nkwazi recent form
| Red Arrows |
LWDWWW |
| Nkwazi |
DDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Red Arrows vs Nkwazi head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Red Arrows | Nkwazi | Zambia Super League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Nkwazi | Red Arrows | Zambia Super League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.