ZESCO United
vs
Red Arrows
Garuda Lions Prediction: ZESCO United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 23% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.44.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
ZESCO United vs Red Arrows overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ZESCO United vs Red Arrows
| Probability | ZESCO United | Draw | Red Arrows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.7% | 36.8% | 14.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.7% | 36.8% | 14.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ZESCO United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.44.
ZESCO United vs Red Arrows match preview
ZESCO United faces Red Arrows in the Zambia Super League with a predicted probability of 49% for a ZESCO victory, while a draw stands at 37% and Red Arrows at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of ZESCO United, with a 23% likelihood. Expected goals indicate ZESCO United at 1.03 and Red Arrows at 0.44, suggesting a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
In terms of recent form, ZESCO United has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Red Arrows have one win, two draws, and two losses in the same period. The head-to-head results show each team with one win in their last two encounters, contributing to a confidence grade of C for this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ZESCO United and Red Arrows expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.47
ZESCO United and Red Arrows attack and defence ratings
ZESCO United
Red Arrows
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
ZESCO United vs Red Arrows markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 48.7% |
| Draw | 36.8% | |
| Red Arrows | 14.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 23.9% |
| No | 76.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 63.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.4% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 24.1% |
| 1-0 | 22.7% | |
| 2-0 | 12.2% |
ZESCO United vs Red Arrows stats
ZESCO United and Red Arrows recent form
| ZESCO United |
DDWWDL |
| Red Arrows |
LDLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ZESCO United and Red Arrows season so far
ZESCO United record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
ZESCO United vs Red Arrows head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Red Arrows | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | ZESCO United | Red Arrows | Zambia Super League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.