Green Buffaloes
vs
ZESCO United
Garuda Lions Prediction: ZESCO United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.63.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United
| Probability | Green Buffaloes | Draw | ZESCO United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.9% | 37.1% | 41.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.9% | 37.1% | 41.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ZESCO United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.97 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United match preview
In the upcoming match between Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with ZESCO United favored at 41% to win, while Green Buffaloes have a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at an 18% probability. Recent form shows Green Buffaloes with mixed results, recording one win in their last six matches, while ZESCO United has been more consistent, winning three of their last six.
Expected goals suggest a slight advantage for ZESCO United, with 0.97 compared to Green Buffaloes' 0.63. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is assessed at 22%, and both teams to score stands at 30%. The head-to-head record from their last two encounters shows each team with one victory, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.59
Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United attack and defence ratings
Green Buffaloes
ZESCO United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- NAPSA Stars vs Power Dynamos — team news & stats
- Nkana vs Kansanshi Dynamos
- Red Arrows v Nkwazi — match page
- Zanaco vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — team news & stats
- Nchanga Rangers vs Makeni All Stars — team news & stats
- Mutondo Stars vs Mufulira Wanderers
- Chirundu Utd v Green Eagles — match page
Before and after this match
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ZESCO United | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Green Buffaloes | 21.9% |
| Draw | 37.1% | |
| ZESCO United | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.1% |
| No | 69.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | ZESCO United win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.5% |
| 0-1 | 18.4% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United stats
Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United recent form
| Green Buffaloes |
WDDWLL |
| ZESCO United |
WWDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Green Buffaloes and ZESCO United season so far
ZESCO United record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Green Buffaloes vs ZESCO United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | ZESCO United | Green Buffaloes | Zambia Super League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Green Buffaloes | ZESCO United | Zambia Super League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.