Algeria Ligue 1
·
Postponed
·Matchday 6
MC Alger
vs
ES Setif
Garuda Lions Prediction: MC Alger
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.64.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
MC Alger
64%
Draw
24%
ES Setif
13%
Chance MC Alger wins
64%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
88%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
45%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 0
13% of simulated outcomes
MC Alger vs ES Setif overview
Garuda Lions analysis: MC Alger vs ES Setif
| Probability | MC Alger | Draw | ES Setif |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.5% | 23.6% | 12.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 63.5% | 23.6% | 12.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why MC Alger
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
65%
3+ goals
37%
No goals
12%
MC Alger and ES Setif expected goals
MC Alger
1.53
ES Setif
0.64
Total expected goals: 2.18
MC Alger and ES Setif attack and defence ratings
MC Alger
Attack
1.31 +31%
Defence
0.63 -37%
ES Setif
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
MC Alger vs ES Setif markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MC Alger | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | MC Alger | 63.5% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| ES Setif | 12.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | MC Alger win | 31.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
MC Alger vs ES Setif stats
MC Alger vs ES Setif head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1MC Alger wins
0Draws
1ES Setif wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | ES Setif | MC Alger | Algeria Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-29 | MC Alger | ES Setif | Algeria Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.