Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 29
Colegiales
vs
Nueva Chicago
1 – 0 Full time
| 1′ | L. Martinez Montagnoli | ||
| 5′ | G. Paz | ||
| 6′ | E. RoldanA. Gonzalez | ||
| 44′ | F. Malagueno | ||
| 45′ | L. Ambrogio | ||
| 46′ | M. BergaraM. Rogoski | ||
| 46′ | G. PazR. E. Zalazar | ||
| 60′ | R. E. MonserratE. Ocampo | ||
| 60′ | L. GonzalezE. Trinidad | ||
| 65′ | F. Zicarelli | ||
| 72′ | A. Gonzalez | ||
| 73′ | D. ArroyoF. Castro | ||
| 73′ | M. PerezI. Antunes | ||
| 73′ | F. ZicarelliN. Toloza | ||
| 74′ | E. Trinidad | ||
| 88′ | M. AlbertengoM. Mamani | ||
| 88′ | L. CastilloF. Miranda | ||
| 90′ | E. Cardozo |
Colegiales
54%
Draw
30%
Nueva Chicago
16%
Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago
| Probability | Colegiales | Draw | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.8% | 27.5% | 10.7% |
| Market | 51.2% | 30.3% | 18.4% |
| Final | 53.9% | 29.6% | 16.5% |
| Edge | +10.6% | -2.8% | -7.8% |
Why Colegiales
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.48.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Colegiales below the model: +10.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Colegiales and Nueva Chicago expected goals
Colegiales
1.51
Nueva Chicago
0.48
Total expected goals: 1.99
Colegiales and Nueva Chicago attack and defence ratings
Colegiales
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Nueva Chicago
Attack
0.65 -35%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago: result vs prediction
Colegiales 1 – 0 Nueva Chicago
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 53.9% | 1.86 | +10.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colegiales | 53.9% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Nueva Chicago | 16.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.8% |
| No | 69.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colegiales win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.1% | |
| Loss | 38.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.6% |
| 2-0 | 15.5% | |
| 0-0 | 14.6% |
Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago stats
Colegiales and Nueva Chicago recent form
| Colegiales |
LWWDLD |
| Nueva Chicago |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Colegiales and Nueva Chicago going into this match
Colegiales record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nueva Chicago record
- They have won 8 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 28 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
1Colegiales wins
1Draws
3Nueva Chicago wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Nueva Chicago | Colegiales | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2014-05-17 | Colegiales | Nueva Chicago | Primera B Metropolitana | 0-1 |
| 2013-12-03 | Nueva Chicago | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 2-0 |
| 2012-04-03 | Colegiales | Nueva Chicago | Primera B Metropolitana | 3-1 |
| 2011-10-21 | Nueva Chicago | Colegiales | Primera B Metropolitana | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Colegiales vs Nueva Chicago odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.3%, draw 30.3%, away 18.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.05 | 5.00 |
| 888Sport | 1.83 | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.00 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.13 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.05 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.05 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.04 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.27 | 5.18 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 2.82 | 4.28 |
| Superbet | 1.82 | 3.10 | 5.00 |
| Unibet | 1.83 | 3.05 | 4.35 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.80 ▼ -0.29
X
3.04 ▲ +0.31
2
5.00 ▲ +1.10
12 snapshots recorded, from .