Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Nueva Chicago
vs
Quilmes
1 – 0 Full time
| 9′ | T. Ocampo | ||
| 16′ | L. Romeo | ||
| 46′ | G. VegaR. Martinez | ||
| 61′ | E. CardozoM. Bergara | ||
| 64′ | A. OrtegaM. Vallejos | ||
| 64′ | T. OrtegaN. Colazo | ||
| 71′ | D. ArroyoI. Antunes | ||
| 71′ | M. PerezM. Rogoski | ||
| 71′ | L. AmbrogioF. Castro | ||
| 74′ | T. Ocampo | ||
| 74′ | F. YozwiakP. Bonacci | ||
| 75′ | T. OcampoR. E. Zalazar | ||
| 83′ | L. RomeoJ. Coronel | ||
| 90′ | D. Gissi | ||
| 90′ | A. Kippes |
Nueva Chicago
29%
Draw
33%
Quilmes
37%
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes
| Probability | Nueva Chicago | Draw | Quilmes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.0% | 37.1% | 39.9% |
| Market | 31.6% | 31.6% | 36.7% |
| Final | 29.5% | 33.0% | 37.5% |
| Edge | -8.6% | +5.5% | +3.2% |
Why Quilmes
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Quilmes below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
79%
2+ goals
49%
3+ goals
22%
No goals
21%
Nueva Chicago and Quilmes expected goals
Nueva Chicago
0.66
Quilmes
0.95
Total expected goals: 1.61
Nueva Chicago and Quilmes attack and defence ratings
Nueva Chicago
Attack
0.58 -42%
Defence
1.22 +22%
Quilmes
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes: result vs prediction
Nueva Chicago 1 – 0 Quilmes
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Defensores De Belgrano vs Racing Cordoba
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre
- San Telmo vs Los Andes — team news & stats
- Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman
- Chacarita Juniors v Atlanta — match page
- Acassuso v All Boys — match page
- Colon Santa Fe vs Deportivo Moron — team news & stats
- Agropecuario vs Atletico DE Rafaela — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Quilmes | 37.5% | 2.67 | +3.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nueva Chicago | 29.5% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| Quilmes | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.9% |
| No | 69.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Quilmes win | 15.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.2% |
| 0-1 | 17.8% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes stats
Nueva Chicago and Quilmes recent form
| Nueva Chicago |
LLLLLW |
| Quilmes |
LLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nueva Chicago and Quilmes going into this match
Nueva Chicago record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 27 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Quilmes record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 27 matches.
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
3Nueva Chicago wins
4Draws
2Quilmes wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Quilmes | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-16 | Nueva Chicago | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Quilmes | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-03 | Nueva Chicago | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-24 | Quilmes | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2021-06-28 | Nueva Chicago | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2019-04-09 | Quilmes | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 3-2 |
| 2017-11-11 | Quilmes | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2015-11-09 | Nueva Chicago | Quilmes | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.6%, draw 31.6%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.48 |
| 888Sport | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 2.92 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 2.95 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 2.83 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.75 | 2.76 | 2.36 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 2.90 | 2.57 |
| Unibet | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.75 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.90 ▲ +0.10
X
2.90 ▲ +0.19
2
2.50 ▼ -0.34
10 snapshots recorded, from .