Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 28
Tristan Suarez
vs
San Martin Tucuman
2 – 0 Full time
| 19′ | M. Guzman | ||
| 46′ | N. GallardoR. Ayala | ||
| 46′ | M. GarciaS. Brinone | ||
| 46′ | N. CastroD. Diellos | ||
| 63′ | A. VeliezA. Cisnero | ||
| 66′ | R. Ayala | ||
| 75′ | M. VeronG. Monroy | ||
| 77′ | K. ColliN. Sanchez | ||
| 77′ | D. BeckerJ. Beron | ||
| 80′ | A. GalloM. Alvarez | ||
| 90′ | B. Cabrera | ||
| 90′ | D. MastrangeloS. Aquino | ||
| 90′ | M. GuillenM. Olguin | ||
| 90′ | M. Enrique |
Tristan Suarez
48%
Draw
31%
San Martin Tucuman
21%
Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman
| Probability | Tristan Suarez | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.6% | 23.7% | 10.7% |
| Market | 42.1% | 33.3% | 24.6% |
| Final | 48.0% | 30.9% | 21.1% |
| Edge | +23.5% | -9.7% | -13.9% |
Why Tristan Suarez
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tristan Suarez below the model: +23.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Tristan Suarez and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
Tristan Suarez
1.81
San Martin Tucuman
0.60
Total expected goals: 2.41
Tristan Suarez and San Martin Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Tristan Suarez
Attack
1.37 +37%
Defence
0.75 -25%
San Martin Tucuman
Attack
1.13 +13%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman: result vs prediction
Tristan Suarez 2 – 0 San Martin Tucuman
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Defensores De Belgrano vs Racing Cordoba
- Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre
- San Telmo vs Los Andes — team news & stats
- Chacarita Juniors v Atlanta — match page
- Acassuso v All Boys — match page
- Colon Santa Fe vs Deportivo Moron — team news & stats
- Agropecuario vs Atletico DE Rafaela — team news & stats
- San Miguel vs Godoy Cruz
Before and after this match
Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 48.0% | 2.09 | +23.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tristan Suarez | 48.0% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.8% |
| No | 61.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tristan Suarez win | 39.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 34.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.3% |
| 2-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman stats
Tristan Suarez and San Martin Tucuman recent form
| Tristan Suarez |
LWWWWW |
| San Martin Tucuman |
DWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tristan Suarez and San Martin Tucuman going into this match
Tristan Suarez record
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
San Martin Tucuman record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
0Tristan Suarez wins
4Draws
2San Martin Tucuman wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | San Martin Tucuman | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-19 | San Martin Tucuman | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Tristan Suarez | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-29 | San Martin Tucuman | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | Tristan Suarez | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2022-05-23 | San Martin Tucuman | Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 32.9%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 2.75 | 3.66 |
| 888Sport | 2.05 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 2.75 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 2.90 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.12 | 2.85 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 2.75 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 2.92 | 3.81 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 2.58 | 3.07 |
| Unibet | 2.10 | 2.85 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 2.75 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.18 ▼ -0.10
X
2.75 ▲ +0.08
2
3.73 ▲ +0.25
12 snapshots recorded, from .