Garuda Lions
Today
Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 28

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre

0 – 0 Full time

23′G. Olguin
28′A. Gonzalez
41′Y. Cabral
56′F. Ferrari
61′M. MaldonadoA. Ramirez
62′M. KabalinE. Dening
64′D. Abello
70′L. MarraG. Castellani
78′L. MendozaG. Valdivia
80′E. OzunaK. Nazareno
80′F. GarciaT. Esidin
80′E. HoyosP. Uriel
90′M. MachadoJ. Zarate

Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry, Buenos Aires

Ferro Carril Oeste 60%
Draw 26%
Atletico Mitre 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFerro Carril OesteDrawAtletico Mitre
Model73.3%16.6%10.1%
Market55.3%28.6%16.1%
Final59.8%25.6%14.6%
Edge+18.0%-12.0%-6.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Ferro Carril Oeste

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 0.93.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ferro Carril Oeste below the model: +18.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ferro Carril O ↓ / Atletico Mitre → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 8% 2 10% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

Ferro Carril Oeste and Atletico Mitre expected goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 2.66
Atletico Mitre 0.93

Total expected goals: 3.59

Ferro Carril Oeste and Atletico Mitre attack and defence ratings

Ferro Carril Oeste

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Atletico Mitre

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.57 +57%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre: result vs prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste 0 – 0 Atletico Mitre

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ferro Carril Oeste 59.8% 1.67 +18.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.5% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.1% 1.75 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.4% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Ferro Carril Oeste win 53.0% 1.89 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ferro Carril Oeste59.8%
Draw25.6%
Atletico Mitre14.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%
Both teams to scoreYes57.1%
No42.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.4%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)40.2%
Handicap -1Ferro Carril Oeste win53.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.4%
Loss26.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.7%
2-19.1%
3-08.6%

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre stats

Ferro Carril Oeste and Atletico Mitre recent form

newest first
Ferro Carril Oeste DWWWLL
Atletico Mitre DLDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ferro Carril Oeste and Atletico Mitre going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ferro Carril Oeste record

  • They have won 16 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Atletico Mitre record

  • They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5Ferro Carril Oeste wins 3Draws 0Atletico Mitre wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19Atletico MitreFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional0-1
2023-09-04Ferro Carril OesteAtletico MitrePrimera Nacional3-0
2023-04-23Atletico MitreFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional0-2
2022-03-19Atletico MitreFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional1-1
2020-03-01Atletico MitreFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional0-1
2019-09-08Ferro Carril OesteAtletico MitrePrimera Nacional0-0
2019-03-03Ferro Carril OesteAtletico MitrePrimera Nacional2-0
2018-02-02Ferro Carril OesteAtletico MitrePrimera Nacional0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atletico Mitre odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 28.8%, away 16.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.64 3.10 5.80
1xBet 1.65 3.16 5.66
888Sport 1.73 3.10 5.00
Bet365 1.65 3.25 6.00
BetVictor 1.67 3.30 5.75
Betano 1.67 3.25 5.70
Betfair 1.62 3.20 5.50
Dafabet 1.67 3.35 5.80
Marathonbet 1.62 3.18 5.60
Pinnacle 1.68 3.42 6.06
SBO 1.58 3.04 4.84
Superbet 1.67 3.35 5.65
Unibet 1.74 3.10 4.80
William Hill 1.73 3.10 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.66 —
X 3.21 ▲ +0.07
2 5.71 ▲ +0.16

10 snapshots recorded, from .