Garuda Lions
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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 29

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste

0 – 0 Full time

18′F. Tevez
24′N. GomezJ. Orellana
45′G. Alegre Rojas
46′M. AbrelianoG. Moreyra
57′E. HoyosL. Marra
57′F. GarciaN. Reniero
68′G. FloresS. Gauna
68′L. PascualJ. Lopez
77′L. JaraE. Martinez
81′M. KabalinK. Nazareno
81′A. GonzalezG. Castellani
88′E. Cardozo

Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento, Isidro Casanova

Almirante Brown 38%
Draw 34%
Ferro Carril Oeste 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlmirante BrownDrawFerro Carril Oeste
Model53.6%30.9%15.5%
Market32.6%34.7%32.6%
Final37.9%33.8%28.3%
Edge+21.0%-3.8%-17.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Almirante Brown

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Almirante Brown below the model: +21.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Almirante Brow ↓ / Ferro Carril O → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 1 18% 13% 2 13% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 58%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

Almirante Brown and Ferro Carril Oeste expected goals

Almirante Brown 1.33
Ferro Carril Oeste 0.59

Total expected goals: 1.92

Almirante Brown and Ferro Carril Oeste attack and defence ratings

Almirante Brown

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.63 -37%

Ferro Carril Oeste

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste: result vs prediction

Almirante Brown 0 – 0 Ferro Carril Oeste

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Almirante Brown 37.9% 2.64 +21.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.7% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score No 65.9% 1.52 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.7% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.4% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Almirante Brown37.9%
Draw33.8%
Ferro Carril Oeste28.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.3%
Under 2.569.7%
Both teams to scoreYes34.1%
No65.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.7%
12 (either side)66.2%
X2 (draw or away)62.1%
Handicap -1Almirante Brown win26.6%
Push (exactly one goal)27.0%
Loss46.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-018.3%
0-015.8%
2-012.9%

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste stats

Almirante Brown and Ferro Carril Oeste recent form

newest first
Almirante Brown DWWLWW
Ferro Carril Oeste DDWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Almirante Brown and Ferro Carril Oeste going into this match

league record before kick-off

Almirante Brown record

  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 17 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ferro Carril Oeste record

  • They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Almirante Brown wins 4Draws 2Ferro Carril Oeste wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-28Ferro Carril OesteAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional0-1
2023-11-11Almirante BrownFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional0-0
2023-11-05Ferro Carril OesteAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional1-1
2022-08-16Ferro Carril OesteAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional1-0
2014-04-05Almirante BrownFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional1-1
2013-10-05Ferro Carril OesteAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional0-1
2013-03-08Almirante BrownFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional1-0
2012-09-10Ferro Carril OesteAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional0-0
2012-03-02Almirante BrownFerro Carril OestePrimera Nacional1-0
2011-09-03Ferro Carril OesteAlmirante BrownPrimera Nacional1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Almirante Brown vs Ferro Carril Oeste odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 34.7%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.73 2.59 2.80
888Sport 2.70 2.50 3.00
Bet365 2.90 2.70 2.80
BetVictor 2.88 2.70 2.80
Betano 2.82 2.75 2.77
Betfair 2.80 2.63 2.63
Dafabet 2.75 2.70 2.95
Marathonbet 2.73 2.59 2.80
Pinnacle 2.94 2.72 2.93
SBO 2.53 2.52 2.65
William Hill 2.80 2.50 2.88

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 —
X 2.63 ▼ -0.03
2 2.80 —

12 snapshots recorded, from .