Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Ferro Carril Oeste
vs
Ciudad de Bolívar
1 – 0 Full time
| 11′ | A. Paredes | ||
| 18′ | E. Dening | ||
| 46′ | B. QuintanaF. Mucignat | ||
| 55′ | E. Hoyos | ||
| 62′ | K. Caraballo | ||
| 64′ | G. SanchezM. Gutierrez | ||
| 64′ | A. GonzalezL. Marra | ||
| 64′ | L. ParisiS. Garcia | ||
| 70′ | A. DiazT. Guiacobini | ||
| 76′ | E. DeningN. Reniero | ||
| 76′ | E. HoyosG. Castellani | ||
| 77′ | T. Guiacobini | ||
| 80′ | N. Yeri | ||
| 80′ | A. ParedesF. Ilarregui | ||
| 86′ | M. KabalinN. Gomez | ||
| 90′ | N. Yeri | ||
| 90′ | N. Yeri |
Ferro Carril Oeste
57%
Draw
28%
Ciudad de Bolívar
15%
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar
| Probability | Ferro Carril Oeste | Draw | Ciudad de Bolívar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.2% | 24.8% | 11.0% |
| Market | 55.2% | 28.6% | 16.2% |
| Final | 57.4% | 27.6% | 14.9% |
| Edge | +9.0% | -3.8% | -5.3% |
Why Ferro Carril Oeste
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.58.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ferro Carril Oeste below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
89%
2+ goals
68%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
11%
Ferro Carril Oeste and Ciudad de Bolívar expected goals
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.72
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.58
Total expected goals: 2.30
Ferro Carril Oeste and Ciudad de Bolívar attack and defence ratings
Ferro Carril Oeste
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Ciudad de Bolívar
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.24 +24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar: result vs prediction
Ferro Carril Oeste 1 – 0 Ciudad de Bolívar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre
- San Telmo v CA Estudiantes — match page
- San Miguel vs All Boys — team news & stats
- Temperley vs Almagro — team news & stats
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman — team news & stats
- Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes
- Agropecuario v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Deportivo Moron vs Godoy Cruz
Before and after this match
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 57.4% | 1.74 | +9.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 57.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Ciudad de Bolívar | 14.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.0% |
| No | 63.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ferro Carril Oeste win | 37.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.3% |
| 2-0 | 14.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar stats
Ferro Carril Oeste and Ciudad de Bolívar recent form
| Ferro Carril Oeste |
DDDWWW |
| Ciudad de Bolívar |
DLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste and Ciudad de Bolívar going into this match
Ferro Carril Oeste record
- They have won 16 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Ciudad de Bolívar record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
1Ferro Carril Oeste wins
0Draws
0Ciudad de Bolívar wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Ciudad de Bolívar | Ferro Carril Oeste | Primera Nacional | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Ciudad de Bolívar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.3%, draw 28.4%, away 16.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.16 | 5.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.25 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.30 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.25 | 5.80 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.16 | 5.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.41 | 5.96 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.20 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.67 ▲ +0.01
X
3.23 ▼ -0.02
2
5.67 ▲ +0.17
12 snapshots recorded, from .