Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 30
Atletico DE Rafaela
vs
San Martin Tucuman
4 – 2 Full time
| 25′ | A. Cisnero | ||
| 27′ | L. Albertengo | ||
| 31′ | G. Carabajal | ||
| 34′ | B. Cabrera | ||
| 40′ | J. Bonifacio | ||
| 45′ | J. Juarez | ||
| 62′ | F. JourdanJ. Cavallaro | ||
| 62′ | R. RamirezE. Wuattier | ||
| 65′ | L. Albertengo | ||
| 67′ | M. Veron | ||
| 69′ | S. BrinoneD. Diellos | ||
| 77′ | J. BonifacioM. Morello | ||
| 77′ | M. MorenoA. Rodriguez | ||
| 78′ | G. CarabajalG. Monroy | ||
| 78′ | J. JuarezV. Salazar | ||
| 79′ | M. Morello | ||
| 84′ | L. Albertengo | ||
| 87′ | L. FloresV. Mondino | ||
| 90′ | A. GranerosN. Castro | ||
| 90′ | N. GallardoA. Paz | ||
| 90′ | A. Rodriguez |
Atletico DE Rafaela
35%
Draw
34%
San Martin Tucuman
31%
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman
| Probability | Atletico DE Rafaela | Draw | San Martin Tucuman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 34.4% | 32.5% |
| Market | 35.7% | 33.8% | 30.5% |
| Final | 35.0% | 34.0% | 31.0% |
| Edge | -2.5% | +0.5% | +2.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
84%
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
30%
No goals
16%
Atletico DE Rafaela and San Martin Tucuman expected goals
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.96
San Martin Tucuman
0.95
Total expected goals: 1.92
Atletico DE Rafaela and San Martin Tucuman attack and defence ratings
Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack
0.75 -25%
Defence
1.06 +6%
San Martin Tucuman
Attack
1.27 +27%
Defence
1.13 +13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman: result vs prediction
Atletico DE Rafaela 4 – 2 San Martin Tucuman
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre
- Ferro Carril Oeste v Ciudad de Bolívar — match page
- San Telmo v CA Estudiantes — match page
- San Miguel vs All Boys — team news & stats
- Temperley vs Almagro — team news & stats
- Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes
- Agropecuario v Gimnasia Y Tiro — match page
- Deportivo Moron vs Godoy Cruz
Before and after this match
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35.0% | 2.85 | -2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 35.0% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| San Martin Tucuman | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico DE Rafaela win | 12.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 66.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman stats
Atletico DE Rafaela and San Martin Tucuman recent form
| Atletico DE Rafaela |
LLWDDW |
| San Martin Tucuman |
WLDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico DE Rafaela and San Martin Tucuman going into this match
Atletico DE Rafaela record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Martin Tucuman record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
2Atletico DE Rafaela wins
1Draws
2San Martin Tucuman wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | San Martin Tucuman | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-03 | Atletico DE Rafaela | San Martin Tucuman | Primera Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-14 | San Martin Tucuman | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 0-3 |
| 2019-10-20 | San Martin Tucuman | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 3-0 |
| 2017-11-04 | San Martin Tucuman | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 33.4%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.49 | 2.68 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 2.75 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 2.75 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 2.68 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 2.82 | 3.17 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 2.62 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.58 ▲ +0.08
X
2.71 ▼ -0.06
2
3.01 ▲ +0.04
12 snapshots recorded, from .