Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 30

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre

2 – 0 Full time

32′D. N. Bellatti S.L. Pioli
56′M. VazquezA. Lopez
56′E. AvaroR. Gonzalez
63′A. Hermoso
68′N. AcostaL. Rey
74′J. ZarateL. Mendoza
77′T. Rodriguez
84′A. HermosoM. Monaco
84′S. BorgesJ. Ponce
85′D. EscalanteD. de Estefano

La Quema Stadium, Boulogne Sur Mer

Acassuso 38%
Draw 33%
Atletico Mitre 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAcassusoDrawAtletico Mitre
Model38.6%35.1%26.3%
Market38.4%32.5%29.1%
Final38.4%33.2%28.4%
Edge+0.2%+2.6%-2.8%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Acassuso ↓ / Atletico Mitre → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 18% 12% 1 15% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 82%
2+ goals 55%
3+ goals 27%
No goals 18%

Acassuso and Atletico Mitre expected goals

Acassuso 1.02
Atletico Mitre 0.79

Total expected goals: 1.81

Acassuso and Atletico Mitre attack and defence ratings

Acassuso

Attack 0.68 -32%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Atletico Mitre

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.30 +30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre: result vs prediction

Acassuso 2 – 0 Atletico Mitre

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Acassuso 38.4% 2.60 +0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 72.9% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score No 63.8% 1.57 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.6% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.4% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Acassuso38.4%
Draw33.2%
Atletico Mitre28.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527.1%
Under 2.572.9%
Both teams to scoreYes36.2%
No63.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.6%
12 (either side)66.8%
X2 (draw or away)61.6%
Handicap -1Acassuso win15.6%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss61.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-017.7%
1-015.4%
1-114.5%

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre stats

Acassuso and Atletico Mitre recent form

newest first
Acassuso LLDLLD
Atletico Mitre DDDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Acassuso and Atletico Mitre going into this match

league record before kick-off

Acassuso record

  • They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Atletico Mitre record

  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Acassuso wins 0Draws 1Atletico Mitre wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-03Atletico MitreAcassusoPrimera Nacional2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Acassuso vs Atletico Mitre odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 32.2%, away 29.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.34 2.82 3.08
Bet365 2.40 2.80 3.25
BetVictor 2.38 2.90 3.20
Betano 2.47 2.92 3.00
Betfair 2.40 2.88 2.88
Marathonbet 2.32 2.82 3.00
Pinnacle 2.44 3.03 3.24
William Hill 2.40 2.80 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.39 ▼ -0.49
X 2.82 ▲ +0.02
2 3.15 ▲ +0.61

12 snapshots recorded, from .