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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 30

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes

3 – 0 Full time

13′M. Melendez
16′C. Guanca
36′M. Sanabria
46′N. ChavesB. Calderara
54′J. Novillo
55′A. Ortega
56′J. CoronelN. Colazo
59′A. Bindella
61′A. Spetale
66′M. Leyendeker
68′R. MartinezG. Vega
68′A. OrtegaA. Lavezzi
70′L. Romeo
70′A. Dominguez
71′M. SanabriaF. Facello
73′A. BindellaA. Kippes
73′U. VeraM. Fernandez
76′T. Perez
77′A. Lavezzi
83′A. CuelloL. Perdomo
88′M. MelendezF. Cristaldo
88′A. DominguezT. Zarate
90′F. Facello
90′F. Cristaldo

Estadio de Chacarita Juniors, Buenos Aires

Chacarita Juniors 32%
Draw 34%
Quilmes 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChacarita JuniorsDrawQuilmes
Model22.2%40.0%37.8%
Market34.6%32.4%33.0%
Final31.5%34.3%34.2%
Edge-12.4%+7.6%+4.8%

Confidence: Low

Why the draw

  • The market prices the draw below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chacarita Juni ↓ / Quilmes → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 26% 19% 1 13% 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 74%
2+ goals 42%
3+ goals 17%
No goals 26%

Chacarita Juniors and Quilmes expected goals

Chacarita Juniors 0.57
Quilmes 0.84

Total expected goals: 1.41

Chacarita Juniors and Quilmes attack and defence ratings

Chacarita Juniors

Attack 0.54 -46%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Quilmes

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes: result vs prediction

Chacarita Juniors 3 – 0 Quilmes

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 30 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Draw 34.3% 2.92 +7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83.1% 1.20 — —
Both teams to score No 74.1% 1.35 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 68.5% 1.46 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.2% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chacarita Juniors31.5%
Draw34.3%
Quilmes34.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.516.9%
Under 2.583.1%
Both teams to scoreYes25.9%
No74.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.8%
12 (either side)65.7%
X2 (draw or away)68.5%
Handicap -1Quilmes win13.3%
Push (exactly one goal)24.5%
Loss62.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-025.6%
0-119.2%
1-112.9%

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes stats

Chacarita Juniors and Quilmes recent form

newest first
Chacarita Juniors LLLLDL
Quilmes WLLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chacarita Juniors and Quilmes going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chacarita Juniors record

  • They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 0.9 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.

Quilmes record

  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 29 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

0Chacarita Juniors wins 4Draws 5Quilmes wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-04QuilmesChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional0-0
2024-07-13Chacarita JuniorsQuilmesPrimera Nacional0-4
2024-02-26QuilmesChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional1-0
2023-09-23Chacarita JuniorsQuilmesPrimera Nacional2-2
2023-05-13QuilmesChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional1-1
2022-04-23Chacarita JuniorsQuilmesPrimera Nacional2-2
2021-10-17Chacarita JuniorsQuilmesPrimera Nacional1-3
2021-06-22QuilmesChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional3-1
2020-12-29QuilmesChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.6%, draw 32.4%, away 33.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.62 2.72 2.71
Bet365 2.62 2.90 2.80
BetVictor 2.63 3.00 2.75
Betano 2.67 2.85 2.80
Betfair 2.55 2.80 2.75
Marathonbet 2.62 2.72 2.71
Pinnacle 2.82 2.91 2.85
SBO 2.46 2.73 2.65
William Hill 2.75 2.75 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 ▼ -0.08
X 2.80 ▲ +0.06
2 2.75 ▼ -0.07

12 snapshots recorded, from .