Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Gimnasia Y Tiro
vs
Atletico DE Rafaela
1 – 0 Full time
| 29′ | M. Fernandez | ||
| 45′ | J. Capano | ||
| 46′ | M. FernandezJ. Cavallaro | ||
| 46′ | T. BanegaM. Birge | ||
| 55′ | N. Rinaldi | ||
| 56′ | J. Bonifacio | ||
| 57′ | J. BonifacioA. Rodriguez | ||
| 57′ | G. Diaz | ||
| 60′ | L. Gordillo | ||
| 67′ | J. CapanoR. Villarreal | ||
| 69′ | F. JourdanM. Pardo | ||
| 75′ | N. RinaldiW. Montoya | ||
| 78′ | J. AguirreA. Tallura | ||
| 78′ | F. RojasN. Contin | ||
| 82′ | A. ObandoT. Rojas | ||
| 82′ | J. CapurroI. Protti | ||
| 89′ | L. Flores |
Gimnasia Y Tiro
50%
Draw
31%
Atletico DE Rafaela
19%
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela
| Probability | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Draw | Atletico DE Rafaela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 29.2% | 14.3% |
| Market | 47.7% | 31.6% | 20.7% |
| Final | 49.9% | 31.0% | 19.1% |
| Edge | +8.8% | -2.5% | -6.4% |
Why Gimnasia Y Tiro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.60.
- The market prices Gimnasia Y Tiro below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
62%
3+ goals
33%
No goals
14%
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals
Gimnasia Y Tiro
1.44
Atletico DE Rafaela
0.60
Total expected goals: 2.04
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atletico DE Rafaela attack and defence ratings
Gimnasia Y Tiro
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Atletico DE Rafaela
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela: result vs prediction
Gimnasia Y Tiro 1 – 0 Atletico DE Rafaela
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v San Miguel — match page
- Almirante Brown vs Acassuso
- All Boys v Colon Santa Fe — match page
- Quilmes v Club Atlético Güemes — match page
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Central Norte
- Colegiales v Chacarita Juniors — match page
- Almagro vs Nueva Chicago — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 49.9% | 2.00 | +8.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 49.9% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 19.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gimnasia Y Tiro win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 2-0 | 13.5% |
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela stats
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form
| Gimnasia Y Tiro |
LDWWLD |
| Atletico DE Rafaela |
WLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gimnasia Y Tiro and Atletico DE Rafaela going into this match
Gimnasia Y Tiro record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico DE Rafaela record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
1Gimnasia Y Tiro wins
1Draws
1Atletico DE Rafaela wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Atletico DE Rafaela | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-06 | Atletico DE Rafaela | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2024-02-18 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.7%, draw 31.6%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 2.83 | 4.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 2.88 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 2.92 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 2.83 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 2.94 | 4.46 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 2.73 | 3.87 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.80 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.91 —
X
2.88 ▼ -0.01
2
4.40 ▼ -0.10
12 snapshots recorded, from .