Primera Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 31
Almagro
vs
Nueva Chicago
0 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | A. Gonzalez | ||
| 8′ | I. Antunes | ||
| 20′ | L. Ambrogio | ||
| 23′ | T. Rodriguez | ||
| 24′ | F. Bustamante | ||
| 56′ | S. Chamorro | ||
| 57′ | T. OcampoG. Vega | ||
| 62′ | G. Paz | ||
| 62′ | J. OrlandoT. Dornell | ||
| 62′ | J. FloresG. Asis | ||
| 75′ | F. BustamanteT. Lopez | ||
| 75′ | J. FernandesJ. Bustos | ||
| 77′ | G. PazB. Palazzo | ||
| 79′ | D. ArroyoG. Ferracutti | ||
| 80′ | D. Gissi | ||
| 82′ | M. PerezM. Rogoski | ||
| 82′ | L. AmbrogioA. Ruiz | ||
| 85′ | E. MartinezC. Salto | ||
| 90′ | N. Tolosa |
Almagro
43%
Draw
33%
Nueva Chicago
24%
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Almagro vs Nueva Chicago
| Probability | Almagro | Draw | Nueva Chicago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.8% | 30.7% | 15.5% |
| Market | 40.0% | 33.3% | 26.7% |
| Final | 43.4% | 32.6% | 23.9% |
| Edge | +13.9% | -2.6% | -11.2% |
Why Almagro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.60.
- The market prices Almagro below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
59%
3+ goals
31%
No goals
15%
Almagro and Nueva Chicago expected goals
Almagro
1.35
Nueva Chicago
0.60
Total expected goals: 1.95
Almagro and Nueva Chicago attack and defence ratings
Almagro
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.39 +39%
Nueva Chicago
Attack
0.61 -39%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago: result vs prediction
Almagro 0 – 1 Nueva Chicago
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- CA Estudiantes v San Miguel — match page
- Almirante Brown vs Acassuso
- All Boys v Colon Santa Fe — match page
- Quilmes v Club Atlético Güemes — match page
- Ciudad de Bolívar vs Chaco For Ever — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Central Norte
- Colegiales v Chacarita Juniors — match page
- Los Andes vs Deportivo Moron
Before and after this match
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 43.4% | 2.30 | +13.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Almagro | 43.4% |
| Draw | 32.6% | |
| Nueva Chicago | 23.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.6% |
| No | 65.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Almagro win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.9% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.0% |
| 0-0 | 15.4% | |
| 2-0 | 12.9% |
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago stats
Almagro and Nueva Chicago recent form
| Almagro |
LDLWDL |
| Nueva Chicago |
DLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Almagro and Nueva Chicago going into this match
Almagro record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Nueva Chicago record
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 30 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Almagro wins
2Draws
3Nueva Chicago wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2024-06-22 | Almagro | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-03 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-14 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Almagro | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2022-09-12 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 2-3 |
| 2018-10-28 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
| 2018-03-10 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 2-4 |
| 2017-05-15 | Almagro | Nueva Chicago | Primera Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2016-10-16 | Nueva Chicago | Almagro | Primera Nacional | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Almagro vs Nueva Chicago odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.0%, draw 33.3%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 2.64 | 3.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 2.80 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.23 | 2.64 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.38 | 2.76 | 3.74 |
| SBO | 2.19 | 2.67 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 2.62 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.30 ▲ +0.10
X
2.76 ▼ -0.01
2
3.44 ▼ -0.16
12 snapshots recorded, from .