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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 29

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela

2 – 1 Full time

10′M. Cachi
25′H. Soria
33′N. Ramos
36′N. Dematei
39′F. Camargo
42′N. CainelliL. Flores
50′F. Molina
56′N. Ramos
63′J. CavallaroJ. Bonifacio
67′H. SoriaF. Paradela
67′O. BianchiJ. Franzoni
67′F. CamargoD. Minervino
74′L. AlbertengoA. Rodriguez
74′M. FernandezT. Rojas
76′N. Dematei
76′N. Dematei
81′F. MolinaJ. Varela
89′D. GallardoM. Casa
90′G. Cosaro

Estadio 23 de Agosto, Jujuy

Gimnasia Jujuy 53%
Draw 28%
Atletico DE Rafaela 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGimnasia JujuyDrawAtletico DE Rafaela
Model56.4%28.0%15.6%
Market52.0%28.4%19.6%
Final53.1%28.3%18.6%
Edge+4.4%-0.4%-4.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Gimnasia Jujuy

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.69.
  • The market prices Gimnasia Jujuy below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gimnasia Jujuy ↓ / Atletico DE Ra → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 15% 13% 2 13% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 66%
3+ goals 38%
No goals 12%

Gimnasia Jujuy and Atletico DE Rafaela expected goals

Gimnasia Jujuy 1.53
Atletico DE Rafaela 0.69

Total expected goals: 2.22

Gimnasia Jujuy and Atletico DE Rafaela attack and defence ratings

Gimnasia Jujuy

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Atletico DE Rafaela

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela: result vs prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy 2 – 1 Atletico DE Rafaela

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gimnasia Jujuy 53.1% 1.88 +4.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 61.8% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score No 59.8% 1.67 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.4% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.6% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gimnasia Jujuy53.1%
Draw28.3%
Atletico DE Rafaela18.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.538.2%
Under 2.561.8%
Both teams to scoreYes40.2%
No59.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.4%
12 (either side)71.7%
X2 (draw or away)46.9%
Handicap -1Gimnasia Jujuy win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)25.9%
Loss43.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-015.5%
2-012.7%
1-112.6%

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela stats

Gimnasia Jujuy and Atletico DE Rafaela recent form

newest first
Gimnasia Jujuy WDDWLL
Atletico DE Rafaela LWDDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gimnasia Jujuy and Atletico DE Rafaela going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gimnasia Jujuy record

  • They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Atletico DE Rafaela record

  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Gimnasia Jujuy wins 1Draws 6Atletico DE Rafaela wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Atletico DE RafaelaGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional0-0
2023-07-23Atletico DE RafaelaGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional1-0
2023-03-18Gimnasia JujuyAtletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional1-0
2022-03-06Atletico DE RafaelaGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional3-0
2021-10-01Atletico DE RafaelaGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional2-0
2021-06-10Gimnasia JujuyAtletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional1-0
2019-09-28Atletico DE RafaelaGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional2-0
2019-03-02Atletico DE RafaelaGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional2-1
2017-09-16Gimnasia JujuyAtletico DE RafaelaPrimera Nacional0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs Atletico DE Rafaela odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.8%, draw 28.5%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.75 3.20 4.68
888Sport 1.80 3.10 4.60
Bet365 1.80 3.20 5.00
BetVictor 1.75 3.40 4.75
Betano 1.78 3.30 4.65
Betfair 1.73 3.30 4.40
Dafabet 1.76 3.25 4.80
Marathonbet 1.73 3.20 4.60
Pinnacle 1.76 3.42 5.16
SBO 1.71 3.04 3.93
Unibet 1.79 3.15 4.35
William Hill 1.80 3.10 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 —
X 3.20 ▲ +0.06
2 4.65 ▼ -0.25

12 snapshots recorded, from .