Garuda Lions
Today
Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 31

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman

2 – 2 Full time

15′M. Veron
41′M. Veron
46′J. VarelaA. Arganaraz
46′F. ParadelaO. Bianchi
53′M. Cachi
54′A. Arganaraz
56′O. Bianchi
60′V. SalazarA. Galvan
66′A. Graneros
69′G. CarabajalM. Garcia
69′S. BrinoneN. Castro
71′F. MolinaA. Alonso
77′G. CosaroD. Lopez
83′A. CisneroA. Veliez
83′A. GranerosD. Diellos
85′M. CachiC. Menendez
90′E. Parnisari
90′A. Veliez
90′N. Castro

Estadio 23 de Agosto, Jujuy

Gimnasia Jujuy 48%
Draw 28%
San Martin Tucuman 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGimnasia JujuyDrawSan Martin Tucuman
Model62.2%20.4%17.4%
Market43.5%30.4%26.1%
Final48.2%27.9%23.9%
Edge+18.7%-10.1%-8.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Gimnasia Jujuy

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.21.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Gimnasia Jujuy below the model: +18.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gimnasia Jujuy ↓ / San Martin Tuc → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 5% 2 8% 9% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Gimnasia Jujuy and San Martin Tucuman expected goals

Gimnasia Jujuy 2.36
San Martin Tucuman 1.21

Total expected goals: 3.57

Gimnasia Jujuy and San Martin Tucuman attack and defence ratings

Gimnasia Jujuy

Attack 1.46 +46%
Defence 1.25 +25%

San Martin Tucuman

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.40 +40%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman: result vs prediction

Gimnasia Jujuy 2 – 2 San Martin Tucuman

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gimnasia Jujuy 48.2% 2.08 +18.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.2% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.3% 1.56 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Gimnasia Jujuy win 41.1% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gimnasia Jujuy48.2%
Draw27.9%
San Martin Tucuman23.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%
Both teams to scoreYes64.3%
No35.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.1%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)51.8%
Handicap -1Gimnasia Jujuy win41.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss37.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.5%
1-18.8%
2-07.9%

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman stats

Gimnasia Jujuy and San Martin Tucuman recent form

newest first
Gimnasia Jujuy DWWDDW
San Martin Tucuman LWLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gimnasia Jujuy and San Martin Tucuman going into this match

league record before kick-off

Gimnasia Jujuy record

  • They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

San Martin Tucuman record

  • They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

1Gimnasia Jujuy wins 2Draws 5San Martin Tucuman wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-13San Martin TucumanGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional2-0
2024-06-23Gimnasia JujuySan Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional2-0
2024-02-03San Martin TucumanGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional1-0
2022-10-01Gimnasia JujuySan Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional1-1
2019-11-10San Martin TucumanGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional2-0
2017-12-10Gimnasia JujuySan Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional0-0
2017-07-23Gimnasia JujuySan Martin TucumanPrimera Nacional0-3
2017-03-11San Martin TucumanGimnasia JujuyPrimera Nacional3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin Tucuman odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.5%, draw 30.4%, away 26.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.04 3.02 3.51
Bet365 2.15 3.00 3.70
BetVictor 2.10 3.25 3.40
Betano 2.15 3.00 3.55
Betfair 2.05 3.00 3.40
Marathonbet 2.02 3.02 3.42
Pinnacle 2.13 3.18 3.68
SBO 2.06 2.95 3.06
William Hill 2.10 3.00 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▼ -0.12
X 3.00 ▲ +0.10
2 3.50 ▲ +0.26

12 snapshots recorded, from .