Atletico DE Rafaela
vs
Tristan Suarez
2 – 1 Full time
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez
| Probability | Atletico DE Rafaela | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.1% | 42.7% | 38.2% |
| Market | 36.6% | 34.9% | 28.6% |
| Final | 32.2% | 36.8% | 31.0% |
| Edge | -17.5% | +7.8% | +9.6% |
Why the draw
- The market prices the draw below the model: +7.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico DE Rafaela and Tristan Suarez expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.23
Atletico DE Rafaela and Tristan Suarez attack and defence ratings
Atletico DE Rafaela
Tristan Suarez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez: result vs prediction
Atletico DE Rafaela 2 – 1 Tristan Suarez
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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Before and after this match
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 36.8% | 2.71 | +7.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 32.2% |
| Draw | 36.8% | |
| Tristan Suarez | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 12.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 87.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 20.8% |
| No | 79.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 63.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico DE Rafaela win | 4.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.0% | |
| Loss | 80.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 30.4% |
| 0-1 | 21.4% | |
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez stats
Atletico DE Rafaela and Tristan Suarez recent form
| Atletico DE Rafaela |
DDWDWL |
| Tristan Suarez |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico DE Rafaela and Tristan Suarez going into this match
Atletico DE Rafaela record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Tristan Suarez record
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Tristan Suarez | Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Tristan Suarez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 34.9%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 2.62 | 3.18 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 2.62 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 2.60 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 2.63 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 2.65 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.46 | 2.62 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 2.72 | 3.23 |
| Superbet | 2.52 | 2.65 | 3.35 |
| Unibet | 2.40 | 2.65 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.60 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .